PGA Championship Score Predictions (How Will the Top Golfers Fare at Valhalla?)
The best golfers in the world head to Louisville, Kentucky this week for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club.
Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka, and every other top golfer across both the PGA Tour and LIV will tee it up this week in what promises to be an electric event. Scheffler is aiming to keep the dream of the grand slam alive after winning at Augusta.
McIlroy is looking to finally end his 10-year long major drought as he returns to the site of his last major victory in 2014. Koepka will try to defend his PGA Championship title by winning the event for the fourth time in his career.
In this article, I'm going to do my best to not only predict the winning score, but the final score of the top 10 golfers on the odds list.
Let's dive into it.
PGA Championship Score Predictions
Winning Score: -17
The last time the PGA Championship was held here was in 2014 when McIlroy won t with a score of 16-under par. He won by just a single stroke over Phil Mickelson who pasted a score of 15-under par. Two other golfers were at 14-under and two more were at 12-under. My point is that 16-under wasn't an unattainable score in which McIlroy ran away from the field with.
I'm going to predict this year's winner will post a score that's one stroke better than McIlroy's 2014 mark. Scores have improved across the board this season and I think that will translate to Valhalla, especially due to their potentially being some ideal scoring conditions this week.
The odds listed below are via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Scottie Scheffler Score Prediction: -13
The No. 1 ranked golfer in the world falls this week. He just experienced the birth of his first child so it's tough to imagine his head is in the right place this week, or that he has had the chance to properly prepare for a major golf tournament. Even Scottie Scheffler won't be able to overcome that adversity. He'll still be in the mix, but he won't have that extra gear he has shown this season that has separated himself from the pack.
Rory McIlroy Score Prediction: -16
Winning a major is a completely different ask than winning a normal PGA Tour event and while I think it'd be silly to assume he won't be in contention on the weekend, the pressure of the moment will weigh too heavy on Sunday and despite shooting the same score he shot in 2014, he'll fall one stroke off from finally ending his major drought.
Brooks Koepka Score Prediction: -12
The defending champion is coming off a win at LIV Singapore and I have no doubt he'll look better than he did at the Masters, but I still think he'll fall a little short at Valhalla. You need a strong scrambling game to win here and I don't think he's been good enough around the greens to pull it off.
Xander Schauffele Score Prediction: -17
The definition of insanity is going the same thing over and over and expecting a different result so go ahead and call me insane because I am once again predicting Xander Schauffele will win his first major this week. I'd argue he's played some of his best golf of his career this season and Valhalla is a course that fits his style of play to perfection. I'm going to feel stupid for making this prediction by Sunday.
Jon Rahm Score Prediction: -5
Jon Rahm ahsn't been himself since signing with LIV. He has yet to win an event this seaon on a Tour that he should be dominating on a weekly basis, and the defending Masters champion posted a disappointing T45 finish at Augusta last month. I don't expect much from him this week.
Ludvig Aberg Score Prediction: -10
Valhalla seems to be a picture perfect course for Ludvig Aberg's style of play, but the fact he had to withdraw from last week's Wells Fargo Championship has me concerned ahead of this week. If he is healthy this week, he'll contend, but I'll predict his knee will hold him back.
Bryson DeChambeau Score Prediction: -11
After a T6 finish at the Masters, I wouldn't be surprised if Bryson DeChambeau makes another run at a major this week. The glaring issue is that since posting that T6 finish, he finished T26 and T27 in the two LIV events. His form could be deteriorating.
Collin Morikawa Score Prediction: Missed Cut
Despite posting some better finishes of late, we still haven't seem the level of ball striking we're used to seeing from Collin Morikawa. Now, he has to play at Valhalla where driving distance is arguably the most important metric, an area where he struggles. I think he may miss the cut this week.
Max Homa Score Prediction: -13
Expect Max Homa to contend at another major, but ultimately fall short on Sunday. He posted a strong T8 finish last week and if a golfer can succeed at Quail Hollow, they can also succeed at Valhalla. He'll win a major eventually, but he needs to get more experience contending in them before he crosses the finish line in first place.
Joaquin Niemann Score Prediction: -8
Joaquin Niemann is still playing some solid golf, but he may have peaked too early this season when he won two of the first three LIV events. He has posted two top 10 finished in his last two starts, but that's not enough for me to back him at a course that I don't think fits his eye as well as some others.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
You can check out all of Iain's bets here!