Phillies vs. Braves Prediction and Odds for Monday, May 23 (Trust Zack Wheeler's Dominance of Braves)
By Joe Summers
A pair of 19-22 teams square off today as the Atlanta Braves host the Philadelphia Phillies in the opening matchup of a four-game series.
Atlanta took two of three from Miami but lost the finale yesterday and will send lefty Tucker Davidson to the mound. Davidson has spent most of the year in the minors but made his first start last week in glorious fashion, hurling five scoreless innings against Milwaukee in a win.
He'll face a stiff matchup today against Zack Wheeler of the Phillies. After a poor start to 2022, Wheeler is blazing hot. He hasn't allowed a single run in three of his last four starts, amassing a 1.04 ERA in that stretch.
Can Davidson outduel Wheeler to lead Atlanta to a home win or will Philadelphia's potent lineup overwhelm the youngster?
Let's check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook as we analyze this Phillies vs Braves matchup:
Phillies vs Braves Odds, Run Line and Total
Run Line:
- Phillies -1.5 (+135)
- Braves +1.5 (-165)
Moneyline:
- Phillies: -127
- Braves: +117
Total:
- 8.5 (Over -115/Under -105)
Phillies vs Braves Prediction and Pick
Zach Wheeler is back, baby! The 2021 National League Cy Young runner-up has been as good as any pitcher in baseball over the last month, striking out over a batter per inning and giving up only three runs in his last 26 innings. He's shut out three of the last four teams he's faced and has dominated Atlanta in recent history.
In five starts against the Braves last season, Wheeler notched a 1.62 ERA and allowed just three runs total over 22 innings in his final three outings against them. Atlanta ranks 24th in OPS against right-handed pitchers during May and things won't get easier against the 31-year-old righty.
To make matters worse for the Braves, Bryce Harper is back in the Phillies' lineup and has had a couple of games to shake off the rust. He's mashed left-handed pitchers (well, he's mashed all pitchers) this year and Tucker Davidson could be in for a rude awakening against a Philadelphia team that has the third-highest OPS against southpaws this season.
Davidson was excellent against the Brewers last week, but the Phillies with Harper are a different beast. The 26-year-old lefty had a 4.44 ERA in five AAA starts, and if you can't slow down minor league lineups then you stand no chance against Harper, Nick Castellanos and Jean Segura. Atlanta's bullpen should be fatigued as well after a competitive series with Miami, and Wheeler has shown a much greater ability to eat up innings than Davidson thus far.
The Phillies have won four of five on the road and they'll improve on that mark today. With Wheeler looking as dominant as ever and a resurgent lineup with Harper back in the fold, we're getting tremendous value on the visitors.
Pick: Phillies (-127)
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.