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Phillies vs. Cardinals Prediction and Odds for Saturday, July 9 (Did the Home Run Derby Come Early?)

By Joe Summers

Kyle Gibson gave up six runs to the Cardinals in his last start and now must face their powerful lineup once again
Kyle Gibson gave up six runs to the Cardinals in his last start and now must face their powerful lineup once again / Tim Nwachukwu/GettyImages
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The 45-40 St. Louis Cardinals have lost four of five games as they continue a home series with the 44-39 Philadelphia Phillies this afternoon at 2:15 PM EST.

Dakota Hudson desperately hopes to break out of a disastrous stretch. In his last five starts, Hudson has an 8.61 ERA and issued 14 walks.

Not to be outdone, Kyle Gibson has been terrible recently too. He surrendered four home runs to these Cardinals at home just last week, and in total allowed 11 runs in his last two starts.

Which struggling pitcher has the edge? Should bettors just slam the over and ask questions later?

To help figure out the best use of our dollars in this Phillies vs Cardinals matchup, here are the odds from consensus sportsbooks:

Phillies vs Cardinals Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Phillies +1.5 (-190)
  • Cardinals -1.5 (+160)

Moneyline:

  • Phillies: +110
  • Cardinals: -130

Total:

  • 8.0 (Over -105/Under -115)

Phillies vs Cardinals Prediction and Pick

I can't figure out how this total is only 8.0. Sure, the Cardinals' lineup hasn't scored more than three runs in their last five games, but they scored five in the very first inning against Kyle Gibson just last week!

Paul Goldschmidt is the rightful favorite for NL MVP (-120) at WynnBET and leads a dangerous Cardinals' lineup that should have no problem doing damage against Gibson once again. The Phillies' starter has a 6.34 ERA on the road and even if he's sharp, Philadelphia's dreadful defense and bullpen will give St. Louis plenty of run-scoring opportunities.

On the other end, Dakota Hudson has a 5.12 expected ERA and hasn't been able to find the strike zone of late. Philadelphia has the third-highest OPS against right-handed pitchers over the last two weeks, and Hudson's MLB Statcast Pitching Profile indicates they'll be able to score:

With Hudson and Gibson on the mound, one of these clubs may clear eight runs by themselves. Thus, I absolutely love the over to improve to 25-14 in Philadelphia's road games this season.

Pick: Over 8.0 (-105)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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