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Phillies vs. Dodgers Prediction and Odds for Sunday, May 15 (Another Perfect Day to Love the Run Line in L.A.)

By Ben Heisler

Los Angeles Dodgers sluggers Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy high-five after scoring in their latest home series vs. the Philadelphia Phillies.
Los Angeles Dodgers sluggers Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy high-five after scoring in their latest home series vs. the Philadelphia Phillies. / Harry How/GettyImages
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The Los Angeles Dodgers have lost four straight for the first time since June 21-24 of the 2021 season, and are on the verge of being swept in their home ballpark by the Philadelphia Phillies this afternoon.

It won't get easier for L.A as they face Phillies ace Aaron Nola from Chavez Revine today, while fellow right-hander MIchael Grove makes his Major League debut for the Dodgers.

Despite the losing streak and a first time Major Leaguer on the mound, the Dodgers keep their run alive as betting favorites in every game so far this season.

Here are the latest odds for today's matchup over at WynnBET Sportsbook.

Phillies vs. Dodgers Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Phillies (+1.5) -175
  • Dodgers (-1.5) +145

Moneyline:

  • Phillies +120
  • Dodgers -130

Total:

  • 8.5 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)

Phillies vs. Dodgers Prediction and Pick

I know the Phillies have their issues, but considering the Dodgers' recent swoon, as well as Nola on the hill, I'm a bit surprised L.A. is still the favorite, even at home.

So far this season, Philadelphia's No. 1 has actually pitched much better than his record would indicate. He's 1-4 with a 3.83 ERA; a certainly respectable number, but his expected ERA (xERA) along with his expected fielder independent pitching (xFIP) suggest it should actually be between 2.47 and 2.64. This is due to Nola throwing his second-highest ground ball rate of his career this year at 52.5%, and balls finding some holes in the infield that should have been outs.

As for Grove, his numbers in the Minors are impressive; averaging a strikeout per nine innings of over 12. But facing a hot Phillies lineup with Bryce Harper, Jean Segura, Kyle Schwarber, and Nick Castellanos just to name a few should theoretically be a daunting task. Yet the sportsbooks don't see it that way. Perhaps the Dodgers use him just one time through the order, considering that in five starts this year, he's only pitched 16.1 innings.

This feels like a trap to buy on the Phillies, and I'll zig while everyone is zagging on Philly to back the Dodgers on the run line. All 20 of their wins this year have been by more than one run, so why waste the juice on the moneyline?

LEAN: Dodgers RL -1.5 (+145)

Follow all of Ben Heisler's betting plays in real-time HERE

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