Phillies vs. Marlins Prediction and Odds for Tuesday, September 13 (Sandy Cinderella has Turned into a Pumpkin)

Miami Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara (22)
Miami Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara (22) / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

A three-game sweep over Washington has put the Philadelphia Phillies comfortably in the second Wild Card spot in the National League, leaving the Padres exposed in the final spot. After a tough stretch, the Phillies have won five of six heading into their series with the Miami Marlins who they have beaten 10 of 16 times this year.

Bailey Falter tries to make it 11 wins for the Phils in this season series, but has the tough task of starting opposite Sandy Alcantara, the prohibitive favorite to win the NL Cy Young.

Phillies vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line and Total

Phillies vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick

Alcantara is a massive favorite for the Cy Young, but that has more to do with everyone else not stepping up than his prowess on the mound. He was the belle of the ball for much of the season, but Sandy Cinderella turned back into a pumpkin. His ERA is now 2.43 compared to 1.88 at the beginning of August and his fielding independent pitching is over three.

His advanced numbers like expected ERA and expected slugging were never quite up to the level of his traditional pitching stats this season. That either meant that the stats were missing something or that regression was going to come for him. It has, big time. Alcantara was a yo-yo for all of August; a great start followed by a bad one, but September has brought consistent mediocrity. 

From August first until now his ERA is 3.80 over seven starts and in his last two outings it is 7.36. He is no longer the ace of the first half of the season, but the books are still treating him that way. Miami should not be the favorite even at home. Plus in the last two times Philly has seen Alcantara, they have scored nine runs in his 13.2 innings. 

Pick: Phillies +114

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