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Phillies vs. Mets Prediction and Odds for Saturday, April 30th (Phillies have Value as Road Dogs in New York)

By Matt De Saro

Philadelphia Phillies v Colorado Rockies
Philadelphia Phillies v Colorado Rockies / Matthew Stockman/GettyImages
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The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies were expected to be fighting for the NL East lead all year long. The Phillies with a potentially amazing offense, and the Mets with some very dangerous arms in the rotation. While the Mets have done their part, the Phillies have not yet found their groove. Philly fell to 10-11 on Friday after suffering their third loss in a row to the Mets.

Game 2 of this three-game weekend set will give Philly a chance for revenge. Tthe Mets are rolling right now and I am not sure they are going to let their NL East rivals slow them down. 

Here are the odds for this game, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook. 

Phillies vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, and Total

Run Line

  • Phillies: +1.5 (-200)
  • Mets: -1.5 (+165)

Moneyline:

  • Phillies: +117
  • Mets: -127

Total:

  • Total 7.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Phillies vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

To be fair, the Phillies have been playing better lately. They swept the Colorado Rockies in four games during the week by a combined score of 32-9. It was exactly the kind of series that the Phillies needed to pull themselves up above .500 for the first time since they were 3-2. And then they go ahead and follow that up with a 3-0 shutout loss to their biggest rivals. 

Despite all of this, I think the Phillies have one distinct advantage tonight. Veteran righty Kyle Gibson has been very good for this team in his first four starts. His ERA is 3.47 with a WHIP of 0.99 in 23 ⅓ innings of work. Gibson's ERA is a bit tainted by a bad day at Coors Field, but he’s been very good. I do worry a bit about his home and away spits if I’m honest. He has a 1.42 ERA and two wins at home. But, Gibson is 0-1 with a 5.91 ERA on the road. It’s early in the season and he got bit by Coors field as many do. I’m not too worried. 

The Mets, on the other hand, will be putting this game in the hands of Taijuan Walker. First off, how is this guy still only 29 years old? I feel like he’s been in the league forever. Secondly, I am very suspicious about him after finishing 2021 with a 4.47 ERA. He’s very hit or miss in general. Walker did hold the Phillies to no runs and no hits in his season debut. But, he only lasted two innings. Also, that was more than two weeks ago. He hit the IL with bursitis in his pitching shoulder which halted his first start. 

I am going to take a chance here that Walker gets lit up while Gibson finally wins a game on the road. 

Pick: Phillies +117 to win

Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE

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