Phillies vs. Mets Prediction and Odds for Saturday, August 13 (deGrom Shines at Home)

*Drumroll*...It's deGrom day!

Jacob deGrom leads the New York Mets against Aaron Nola and the Philadelphia Phillies in the best pitching matchup of the day. Get your popcorn ready - this is going to be spectacular.

After striking out 12 Braves in 5.2 innings last week, it's safe to say the Mets' superstar is still one of MLB's premier pitchers. Dating back to 2021, New York has eight consecutive home wins behind deGrom. In his career, he's got a ridiculous 2.11 ERA at home.

That being said, Aaron Nola is pretty darn good himself. With a 2.24 road ERA, Nola is comfortable behind enemy lines and already limited the Mets to one run over seven strong innings earlier this season.

Which elite starter has the edge? Can Philadelphia pick up another huge upset or will deGrom win a ninth straight at Citi Field?

Let's get into the odds, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook:

Phillies vs Mets Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

• Phillies +1.5 (-130)
• Mets -1.5 (+110)

Moneyline:

• Phillies: +185
• Mets: -205

Total:

• 6.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Phillies vs Mets Prediction and Pick

It's legitimately stunning to see +185 odds next to a team that's won 13 of 15 and starts their ace, who ranks seventh in expected ERA (2.84) among all qualified pitchers.

But that's how much respect deGrom garners. To loosely quote The Longest Yard, he's so good, he makes good people look not good.

In deGrom's first start, he had an expected FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 1.31. As an encore, he compiled a 0.72 expected FIP in his second start. Shane McClanahan leads MLB in expected FIP at 2.23, so deGrom is still on an entirely different planet compared to other pitchers.

Nola has an expected FIP above 3.17 in each of his last three starts. He's still good, but deGrom makes him look not good.

I'm a tad concerned about Nola's performance against good clubs of late too. In recent weeks, he dominated the Nationals, Pirates, and Marlins. All three teams rank 24th or worse in OPS against right-handed pitchers since the All-Star Break. Sandwiched around those games, Nola faced the Braves twice and Cardinals once. Those clubs rank in the top 12 in OPS in that time frame, and Nola gave up 14 runs in the three games.

New York has the fifth-best OPS against righties since the break, so the Mets are the kind of lineup that Nola is struggling against.

Back the Mets to earn a commanding victory behind deGrom to get revenge for yesterday's upset.

Pick: Mets -1.5 (+110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.