Phillies vs. Mets Prediction and Odds for Friday, August 12 (Can Suarez Match Scherzer?)

Ranger Suarez has a 1.27 ERA since the start of July as the Phillies are 8-1 in his road outings this year
Ranger Suarez has a 1.27 ERA since the start of July as the Phillies are 8-1 in his road outings this year / Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Mets have six straight wins as home favorites and hope to stay scorching-hot behind Max Scherzer when they take on the Philadelphia Phillies today.

Scherzer has seven consecutive quality starts as the Mets are 24-4 in his last 28 outings. Coming off seven shutout innings against the Braves, he has a ridiculous 1.77 ERA at Citi Field.

Philadelphia turns to Ranger Suarez, behind whom its won four straight. Suarez is stellar on the road, compiling a 6-1 record and 2.87 ERA.

With both teams and pitchers playing well, who has the edge in this National League showdown? Can Suarez take Goliath down and send Scherzer home with a loss?

To find the value in this Phillies vs Mets matchup, let's first check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook:

Phillies vs Mets Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Phillies +1.5 (-125)
  • Mets -1.5 (+105)


  • Phillies: +190
  • Mets: -210


  • 7.0 (Over -105/Under -115)

Phillies vs Mets Prediction and Pick

This might sound blasphemous, but Ranger Suarez is pitching better than Max Scherzer right now.

Since the start of July, Suarez has a 1.28 ERA. He's got an expected FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) under 3.76 for five consecutive starts, including three outings under 2.71.

By increasing his cutter and changeup usage, Suarez turned into an excellent starter. Opponents hit just .182 against his cutter last month, while he had a 50% whiff rate with his changeup. That cutter in particular is critical, as the Mets have a -14 run value against the pitch, per MLB Statcast.

Scherzer is dominant in his own right, with a 1.37 ERA since the start of July, but his underlying metrics are a bit shaky. In two of Scherzer's last three starts, he has an expected FIP over 5.19. Chris Flexen has MLB's worst expected FIP at 5.09, so those numbers are concerning for Mad Max.

Philadelphia ranks fifth in OPS against right-handed pitchers over the last two weeks, so the lineup can take advantage of any Scherzer mistakes. The club is 12-2 over its last 14 games, and I don't think a team this hot behind a pitcher this good should be +190 underdogs against anyone.

If you bet $100 on the Phillies moneyline in every Ranger Suarez road start, you'd be up $727. The Mets should certainly be favored, but not by this much. Take the value on Philadelphia as this matchup is much closer than oddsmakers would make you believe.

Pick: Phillies (+190)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.