Phillies vs. Mets Prediction and Odds for Friday, May 27 (New York Undervalued at Home)

May 10, 2022; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco
May 10, 2022; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco / Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Mets' pitching injuries are starting to pile up, but they'll go to one of their reliable options to kick off a weekend NL East series.

The Mets host the Phillies for a three game series after dropping the final two games of their road trip to the Giants. New York sends out Carlos Carrasco Friday night, who has been fantastic after a shaky 2021 campaign. The Phils will counter with Zach Eflin, who has some positive underlying metrics for an emerging pitching staff.

Here are the odds for this Friday night meeting with odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook:

Phillies vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Total

Run Line:

  • Phillies: +1.5 (-175)
  • Mets: -1.5 (+145)


  • Phillies: +130
  • Mets: -140

Total: 8 (Over -120, Under +100)

Phillies vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

Carrasco is pitching his best since 2018, sporting a 3.50 ERA and showcasing his pinpoint command by walking less than two batters per 9 innings. He is allowing softer contact than his first season with the Mets last year and allowing one less hit per 9 innings than in 2021. Overall, he has a WHIP (walks, hits per innings pitched) 0.3 lower than last season.

There can be some positive regression his way as well with a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 2.92. Overall, 'Cookie' has been far better at Citi Field than on the road, pitching to a 2.16 ERA with two wins and no losses to his name.

On the other side, Eflin has similar metrics to Carrasco, a FIP better than his already solid ERA with fantastic control. He has an ERA of 3.65 and a FIP nearly one run better, but a lot of his success has come at home. He has an ERA of 1.57 at home this season, but that number shoots up to 7.07 in 3 start.

At this number, I think the Mets are being undervalued with the pitching edge at Citi Field.

LEAN: Mets ML -140

You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!