Phillies vs. Mets Prediction and Odds for Sunday, May 1 (Phillies With Tantalizing Value)

The Phillies hope to earn a series win as they take on the Mets today
The Phillies hope to earn a series win as they take on the Mets today / Mike Stobe/GettyImages
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The 15-7 New York Mets host the 11-11 Philadelphia Phillies today at 7:08 p.m. EST in a rubber match after these teams split the first two games of the series.

We've got an elite pitching matchup on our hands as Max Scherzer takes on Zach Eflin. Both starters have been fantastic in the first month of the season, with Scherzer giving up only two runs combined in his last three starts and Eflin coming off a two-hit, one-run gem against the Rockies.

Philadelphia has won five of six as their offense is heating up, can they get to Scherzer or will the Mets secure a series victory at home?

Let's take a gander at the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to help us find out ahead of this Phillies vs Mets matchup:

Phillies vs Mets Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Phillies +1.5 (-140)
  • Mets -1.5 (+115)

Moneyline:

  • Phillies: +160
  • Mets: -175

Total:

  • 7.0 (Over +105/Under -125)

Phillies vs Mets Prediction and Pick

Scherzer shut the Phillies down a couple of weeks ago with a one-run, five-inning effort. He's carried that momentum forward and allowed only three hits total over 14 innings in his next two starts. Any fears of age or fatigue catching up to him have been put to bed, as the two-time Cy Young award winner looks as good as ever.

While Zach Eflin isn't on Mad Max's level, he's pretty darned good too. He's in the 95th percentile in average exit velocity, so teams aren't getting hard contact against him. New York's offense has overperformed a bit and I like Eflin's chances to keep their lineup at bay.

The issue for Philadelphia lies in its defense. As Bryce Harper has moved to DH while nursing an injured elbow, Nick Castellanos in right field has been, um, an adventure. Philly ranks 25th in defensive runs saved and that issue is my biggest fear in backing them and the under.

But hey, what's life without a little fear? I think it's more likely than not that the Mets win today. But the price shouldn't be +160 on the Phillies. They have the better offense and Eflin can hold his own against Scherzer.

I'm happy to take a shot on a legitimately good team behind a legitimately good pitcher against an opposing starter they've already seen this year. Though I expect this to be a low-scoring game, so I'll take the under as well. Fading Max? Let's get mad, folks.

Pick: Phillies +160 and Under 7.0 (-125)


Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.