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Pirates vs. Cubs Prediction and Odds for Monday, July 25 (Adrian Sampson Remains Strong Bet for Chicago)

By Ben Heisler

Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Adrian Sampson has a career 3.06 ERA in 67.2 innings with the Cubs, compared to a 5.71 ERA with every other team.
Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Adrian Sampson has a career 3.06 ERA in 67.2 innings with the Cubs, compared to a 5.71 ERA with every other team. / Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
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The Chicago Cubs are red-hot after finishing the first half ice-cold.

Following a 1-9 stretch in their final 10 games, Chicago has since won four straight; sweeping away the Phillies in Philadelphia over the weekend.

They return home to Wrigley Field on Monday as they welcome the Pittsburgh Pirates to town to start a quick two-game series. The Buccos send out right-hander J.T. Brubaker (2-8, 4.02 ERA) against fellow right-hander Adrian Sampson (0-1, 3.34 ERA)

Here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook for tonight's NL Central matchup from the North Side of Chicago.

Pirates vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Pirates +1.5 (-155)
  • Cubs -1.5 (+127)

Moneyline:

  • Pirates +131
  • Cubs -141

Total:

  • 8.5 (OVER -115 | UNDER -105)

Pirates vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick

Both of these two starting pitchers have had some of the worst run support from their respective teams throughout the season.

Sampson makes his sixth start of the year tonight, and Chicago has only given him 16 runs of support through his first five games. He's been terrific in his year and a half with the Cubs, posting an ERA of 3.06 in 67.2 innings since being claimed off waivers in 2021.

Meanwhile, Brubaker through his first 17 starts has gotten fewer than four runs of support per game, and has also pitched much better than his 2-8 record. His ERA is a respectable 4.02, but his Fielding Independent Pitching, or FIP is even lower at 3.73. He comes off his best outing of the year; firing seven shutout innings against the Miami Marlins; allowing only three hits while striking out nine.

Between both starting pitchers performing much better than the numbers indicate, as well as the wind blowing in at Wrigley tonight, I'll back the under at the Friendly Confines between these two.

PICK: UNDER 8.5 (-105)

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