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Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Odds for Wednesday, August 10 (Sharps Moving Line in Pittsburgh Direction)

By Ben Heisler

Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Mitch Keller has a 1.74 ERA over his last five starts, but only has one win to show for it.
Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Mitch Keller has a 1.74 ERA over his last five starts, but only has one win to show for it. / Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
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The Arizona Diamondbacks look to stay hot in their home park when they host the Pittsburgh Pirates in Game 3 of their four-game set Wednesday evening.

Arizona's won three straight, including the first two vs. the Buccos; outscoring Pittsburgh 9-4 in their two games.

The Pirates send right-hander Mitch Keller to the mound (3-8, 4.21 ERA) against left-hander Madison Bumgarner (6-10, 3.96 ERA) as the Pirates look to even the season series at 3-3.

Here are the latest odds for tonight's matchup in Phoenix over at WynnBET Sportsbook:

Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Pirates +1.5 (-150)
  • Diamondbacks -1.5 (+125)

Moneyline:

  • Pirates +136
  • Diamondbacks -146

Total:

  • 8 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)

Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick

I think Pittsburgh is live to snap Arizona's win streak, in large part because they have the better pitcher on the mound.

Pirates starter Mitch Keller has been fantastic over his last five outings, but has very little to show for his mid-season turnaround. While his ERA for the season is a respectable 4.21, over his past five starts, it's at 1.74, going just 1-2 in those outings while averaging 6.1 innings in those matchups.

Meanwhile, Arizona turns to Madison Bumgarner, who despite his 3.96 ERA, has been extremely fortunate this season. Bumgarner's expected ERA (xERA) via Fangraphs is sizably higher at 5.14, with a Fielder Independent Pitching at 4.64.

Granted, the Pirates have the third-worst rated offense in the league, so while mixing a lucky pitcher against a bad hitting team doesn't seem like a great approach, but consider this. When Pittsburgh scores five runs or more, they're 29-8. Bumgarner has allowed five runs in three of his last four starts.

Still not convinced? Maybe the sharps' perspective will be more convincing.

After this matchup opened at Pirates +160 consensus, they've been bet all the way dow to as low as +125 at several sportsbooks since.

I'll trust the sharps, and the better pitcher Wednesday night and roll with Pittsburgh as a short road dog.

PICK: Pirates ML +136

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