Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Odds for Thursday, August 11 (Merrill Kelly Is Breakout Star)

Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Merrill Kelly (29)
Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Merrill Kelly (29) / Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

The Pittsburgh Pirates took a 6-4 win last night against the Arizona Diamondbacks and now have a chance to split the four-game set tonight with a win in the finale. This is the final game of the year between these two teams and comes with both in four place in their respective divisions. Pittsburgh is 45-66 and Arizona is 50-60. 

JT Brubaker makes the start for Pittsburgh, it is the 28-year-olds 22nd of the year. He is opposed by the Diamondbacks fourth year starter, Merril Kelly in his 23rd outing. 

Let’s take a look at the odds for Pittsburgh’s final game out in the desert from our friends at WynnBET. 

Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line

  • Pirates +1.5 (-140)
  • Diamondbacks -1.5 (+115)


  • Pirates +160
  • Diamondbacks -175


  • 8.0 (Over -105 / Under -115)

Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick

Merrill Kelly starts for Arizona tonight and the 33-year-old has an interesting career arc that has brought him to be one of the better pitchers in all of the National League. Kelly didn’t break into the league until he was 30, back in 2019 and now in his fourth year, he has a 10-5 record and 2.86 ERA. That ranks him seventh in the NL in both ERA and wins. Kelly is also barely outside the top 10 in wins above replacement for NL pitchers at 3.2.

Kelly is also top 10 in the NL in innings pitched and adjusted ERA+. He is a legitimate top of the rotation ace who is having his breakout year at 33. He has made seven starts since July 1, all seven have been quality starts and he hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of those outings. 

Kelly will continue to pitch lights out, he is the best pitcher in this rotation and the Diamondbacks were an even bigger favorite with Zac Gallen on the mound. 

Pick: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+115)

Follow all Josh’s bets HERE