Pirates vs. Marlins Prediction and Odds for Monday, July 11 (Back Mitch Keller's Luck to Turn in Miami)
By Josh Yourish
The Pirates continue their road trip, after taking two of three from Milwaukee, and head down to Miami for a four-game set with the Marlins.
Miami comes off of a four-game split with the Mets to move their record to 41-43. Pittsburgh is 36-50 and has right-hander Mitch Keller on the mound tonight, while the Marlins counter with lefty Trevor Rogers.
You can find odds for this and every MLB game today at WynnBET Sportsbook.
Pirates vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line and Total
Run Line
- Pirates +1.5 (-155)
- Marlins -1.5 (+127)
Moneyline
- Pirates +143
- Marlins -153
Total
- 7.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)
Pirates vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick
Mitch Keller takes the mound at 2-6 with a 5.21 ERA in 16 starts this season. Keller has switched up his pitch repertoire this season, going from a four-seam fastball to a sinker back on May 31 against the Dodgers. In his first five starts utilizing the new pitch, he found success unlike any other time in his lackluster Big League career; pitching to a 2.96 ERA while generating a 56.4% groundball rate over that time.
However, in his last two starts, it seems he may have been figured out again. His sinker is still his best pitch with a -6 run value, but no other pitch has a negative run value. He's given up five and four runs in those outings.
His ERA over the two game stretch looks ugly, but his expected fielding independent pitching is 3.15 compared to 4.00 over his first five games with the sinker. His strikeout rate has improved in his last two, but the only problem is balls that get put in play have done damage. His batting average on balls in play, or BABIP, is .567. For the season he is .342 and league average is around .300.
Keller is not a great pitcher, but he's also had bad luck his last two outings. I still believe he has found something with his sinker and his BABIP will regress back to the mean tonight. If Keller can keep the walks down, then he can develop into a middle of the rotation starter, finally.
Pick: Pirates +1.5 (-155)
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