Pirates vs. Marlins Prediction and Odds for Wednesday, July 13 (Trust Lopez at Home)

Sometimes a weaker team catches fire, like the Pittsburgh Pirates rattling off four straight wins as home underdogs. But eventually, things balance out and the superior team emerges victorious.

I believe that's what we'll have in store today with Pablo Lopez and the Marlins looking to salvage a win in this home series.

J.T. Brubaker is winless on the road for Pittsburgh while Lopez has dominated at home this season. Is it that simple? Or should bettors look deeper for value?

Let's check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to help find out ahead of this Pirates-Marlins matchup:

Pirates vs Marlins Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

• Pirates +1.5 (-145)
• Marlins -1.5 (+120)

Moneyline:

• Pirates: +152
• Marlins: -165

Total:

• 7.0 (Over -115/Under -105)

Pirates vs Marlins Prediction and Pick

Pablo Lopez endured a rough June but seems to be back on track.

Through two July starts, he's allowed just seven hits and three runs with Miami winning both. The Marlins are 5-2 in his last seven starts and despite losing three of four, I see value with them as home favorites against a Pirates team punching above its weight.

While Pittsburgh has wins in four straight as a road underdog, they'd won just two of 16 in this spot before that. JT Brubaker walked five batters in his last start and is 0-6 with a 4.32 ERA on the road.

Lopez does have the occasional blowup start, but he's allowed four hits or fewer in three of his last four starts and I've got much more faith in him than Brubaker.

Entering the series, Miami came in a scorching 10-1 in their last 11 games as a home favorite. Despite losing their last two to the underdog Pirates, a 10-3 record in the last 13 as a home favorite remains impressive. Though I don't see much value on the -165 odds, I do like the plus-money on the run line (+120). Each of Pablo Lopez's last four wins came by multiple runs.

This looks like a classic sell-high, buy-low moment. Let's tap into our inner economists and roll with the Marlins.

Pick: Marlins -1.5 (+120)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.