Pirates vs. Mets Prediction and Odds for Saturday, September 17th (Pirates With Value for Huge Upset)
By Joe Summers
The New York Mets snapped a five-game losing streak as home favorites with a 7-1 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates on Thursday, but there's still reason to be concerned about New York moving forward.
Chris Bassitt hopes to rebound from a terrible outing against the Cubs in which he allowed five runs in only 3.2 innings, while Bryse Wilson looks to prove he belongs in Pittsburgh's 2023 rotation.
Can the Pirates pull off a massive upset or will the Mets get back on track to maintain an NL East lead?
Here are the consensus odds before we take a closer look at the matchup:
Pirates vs Mets Odds, Run Line and Total
I see value on the Pirates at this huge number. Chris Bassitt is struggling of late and the Mets' lineup can't be trusted to pick up the slack.
The warning signs were glaring for Bassitt prior to his implosion against Chicago. In four of his last five starts, he's compiled an expected FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) above 4.76, with two above 5.48. Those numbers would be among the worst in MLB over the course of the year, and I can't back him as a -320 favorite until we see him get back on track.
New York's lineup, meanwhile, scored just eight runs total over its five-game losing streak as a home favorite.
That bodes well for Bryse Wilson, who posted an expected FIP below 3.81 in three of his previous five outings. He's walked just four batters total in that stretch, and seems to be finding a groove late in the season.
Pittsburgh won four straight as a road underdog prior to Thursday's loss. Given the Pirates' hot streak and the Mets' struggles, I'm taking a shot on the visitors at huge odds. New York likely wins, but the value is there for a Pirates upset.
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.