Pirates vs. Orioles Prediction and Odds for Saturday, August 6 (Strong Pitching Matchup Gives Under Value)
By Joe Summers
Despite an 0-6 record, Pittsburgh Pirates' starter JT Brubaker's 3.71 road ERA is an impressive mark as he hopes to secure his first road victory today against the Baltimore Orioles.
The Pirates struggle as road underdogs though, entering yesterday's slate losing six of seven. Baltimore, meanwhile, had won six of eight as home favorites and send the rising Austin Voth to the hill.
Voth is pitching well himself, compiling a 2.75 ERA in July and allowed three or fewer runs in all seven of his starts this year.
Can Voth earn a victory to continue his nice stretch or will Brubaker finally get in the win column away from home?
Let's take a peak at the consensus odds to find value in this Pirates vs Orioles matchup:
Pirates vs Orioles Odds, Run Line and Total
Run Line:
- Pirates +1.5 (-160)
- Orioles -1.5 (+130)
Moneyline:
- Pirates: +141
- Orioles: -151
Total:
- 8.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
Pirates vs Orioles Prediction and Pick
It's only a matter of time before the Pirates earn another win behind JT Brubaker, behind whom they've lost eight of 10, including four straight.
Despite today's rough start JT Brubaker owns a 3.86 FIP, 8.9% walk rate, 22.3% strikeout rate, & 0.95 HR/9 this season.
— Rum Bunter (@rumbunter) August 1, 2022
His last 17 starts, after 2 poor ones to start the season, owns a 3.98 ERA, 8.1% walk rate, 22.7% strikeout rate, & 0.93 HR/9.
It's been a good season for him
Over his last nine starts, Brubaker has a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) below 3.71 six times. He's a solid pitcher, but his bullpen, defense and lineup continually let him down.
I don't know if that win comes today, though, as Austin Voth is putting together a solid run as well. He's got a FIP under 3.41 in eight of his last nine appearances as he's limiting hard contact and should find success against a pathetic Pirates lineup that ranks 27th in OPS against right-handed pitchers over the last three weeks.
Because I have faith in both pitchers, I'm looking to the under in this matchup. It's 13-4 in the Pirates' last 17 as road underdogs. I expect an offensive decline from Baltimore as well after trading away Trey Mancini and waiving the white flag on the season.
Trust each pitcher and the Orioles' sublime bullpen to keep this contest low-scoring.
Pick: UNDER 8.5 (-110)
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.