Betsided

Pirates vs. Padres Prediction and Odds for Saturday, May 28 (Back Both Starters to Deliver in San Diego)

By Ben Heisler

San Diego Padres starting pitcher Joe Musgrove is 5-0 this season with a 1.90 ERA through 52 innings.
San Diego Padres starting pitcher Joe Musgrove is 5-0 this season with a 1.90 ERA through 52 innings. / Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
facebooktwitterreddit

One of the National League's best squads matches up against one of the worst in Game 2 of a three game set Saturday night, as the San Diego Padres host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Petco Park.

It's a battle of one undefeated pitcher against a starter with no wins to his name, as Joe Musgrove (5-0, 1.90 ERA) toes the rubber for San Diego against J.T. Brubaker of the Pirates (0-4, 4.64 ERA).

After covering Friday night on the run line despite a moneyline 4-3 loss, can the Buckos keep it close again in San Diego? Perhaps even pull off an upset at more than 2/1?

Here are the latest odds for Saturday's west coast showdown over at WynnBET Sportsbook.

Pirates vs. Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Pirates +1.5 (-105)
  • Padres -1.5 (-115)

Moneyline:

  • Pirates +210
  • Padres -240

Total:

  • 7 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)

Pirates vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

I'm leaning on the under in the first five innings of tonight's game, as I trust both pitchers to keep the other team's offenses at bay for at least the first two times through the order.

The Joe Musgrove support is much easier on the surface to get behind. The Padres' talented right-hander has gone six-plus innings in every start this season, not allowing more than two runs in any of his eight starts. Musgrove has started to pitch to contact more this year, seeing his ground ball rate increase, and consequently bring down his HR/9 and home run to fly ball ratio substantially in the process.

As for Brubaker, he's actually pitched much better than his record and ERA indicate. Brubaker's ERA is 4.64 on the season, but his Fielder Independent Pitching, or FIP suggest he's due for some positive regression to the mean; coming in at 4.01 this season. He's also upped his strikeout rate to just under 10 per nine innings, and dropped his HR/9 a full run from a season ago (1.05 this year, 2.03 last year).

I see another pitcher's duel through the first five innings in San Diego, and love getting the opportunity for plus odds in the process.

LEAN: 1st 5 Innings UNDER 3.5 (+100)

Follow all of Ben Heisler's betting plays in real-time HERE

Home/MLB Odds