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Pirates vs. Reds Game 1 Prediction and Odds for Thursday, July 7 (Fade Mike Minor Whenever Humanly Possible)

By Ben Heisler

Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Mike Minor prepares to deliver a pitch in the second inning at home. The lefty is just 1-5 so far in 2022.
Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Mike Minor prepares to deliver a pitch in the second inning at home. The lefty is just 1-5 so far in 2022. / Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY
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After getting their doors kicked in Wednesday night in a 16-0 loss to the New York Yankees in Pittsburgh, the Pirates travel to Cincinnati for a doubleheader vs. the Reds.

Game 1 of the twin bill begins this afternoon at 2:10 p.m. ET, with first pitch of the nightcap scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Today's matchup is a makeup from a washout back on May 6.

Pirates top pitching prospect Roansy Contreras gets the start for the Buccos on the road against struggling left-handed veteran Mike Minor.

Which team in the NL Central basement gets the series started off right?

Here are the latest odds from WynnBET for Game 1 in Cincinnati.

Pirates vs. Reds Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Pirates -1.5 (+150)
  • Reds +1.5 (-180)

Moneyline:

  • Pirates -105
  • Reds -105

Total:

  • 9 (OVER -115 | UNDER -105)

Pirates vs. Reds Prediction and Pick

The oddsmakers seem to have quite a bit of faith in Mike Minor to keep this thing close with both sides being a pick 'em on the moneyline.

Frankly, I'm not sure why anyone would want to back Minor in any scenario right now. Through six starts this season with the Reds, the lefty is 1-5 with a 6.82 ERA and an eye-popping HR/9 of 3.13. That's the worst HR/9 ratio on the slate by nearly a full number!

Perhaps Vegas is also looking at Pittsburgh's putrid offense as a means of how they're handicapping this one. The Pirates strike out at the second-highest clip in the Majors (25.2%) and have been shut out in two of their last three games at home against the New York Yankees.

As for Contreras, I'm still very much a believer in his stuff and ability. His most recent start was rough, inflating his ERA to 4.09 after allowing seven runs in 1.2 IP vs. the Milwaukee Brewers. Up until that point, he had not allowed more than three earned runs in any of his previous seven starts.

The Reds' offense is certainly improved from their awful start to the season, but I buy Contreras to handle them, along with the Pirates to take care of business vs. Minor.

LEAN: Pirates -105

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