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Pirates vs. Reds Prediction and Odds for Friday, May 6 (Cincinnati on Pace to Be the Worst Team in MLB History)

By Matt De Saro

San Diego Padres v Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres v Pittsburgh Pirates / Justin Berl/GettyImages
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Imagine being a youngster, eager to go to your first professional baseball game. Bright-eyed with your favorite jersey on, toddler glove, and team cap that is two sizes too big. Heading to the ballpark with the farm ready to begin a life as a baseball superfan.

Now imagine that your first live game is this game. A showdown between one of the worst teams in the MLB and one of the worst teams in the history of baseball. I think I’d be pretty let down. Luckily I’m not some optimistic toddler and realized a long time ago that money can still be made from bad teams. 

The Pirates and Reds face off on Friday in what can be described as a meaningless game. The Pirates might be 10-14 and third in the NL Central, but this is as good as things will be for the Pirates. They have played over their heads so far this year and still can't get their record near .500. The Reds, on the other hand, have a legit chance to lose more games than any team in history this year. 

Here are the odds for this game, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook. 

Pirates vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, and Total

Run Line

  • Pirates: -1.5 (+135)
  • Reds: +1.5 (-165)

Moneyline:

  • Pirates: -120
  • Reds: +110

Total:

  • Total 8.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Pirates vs. Reds Prediction and Pick

Any of you who follow my predictions are aware of my current strategy for betting on games that the Reds play. Whatever you do, don’t bet on them. It sounds simple, and it is. But, it has also been very effective.

It's easy to see why as the Reds are just 2-18 against the spread in their last 20 games. This means we are 18-2 ATS in these games. This isn’t even a strategy really. At this point, it's just common sense. 

I realize the Pirates present a bit of a unique challenge for this system as a similarly awful team on paper. But, the Pirates are actually playing pretty well all things considered. They are 4-2 ATS in their last six games and won two of their last four games. Nothing spectacular, but the Pirates have won more this week than the Reds have in the last month and change. 

Having said all of that, there is one small issue with my auto-fade of the Reds. But It is small. Connor Overton is his name. The Reds’ starter for this game had a phenomenal start to the year after giving up one earned run in 5 ⅓ innings against the Rockies last Saturday. However, Overton finished last year with an ERA of 8.31 and I expect some rapid regression. Just in case I’m going to forgo the RL and take the Pirates to win straight up. 

Pick: Pirates ML (-120)

Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE