Pirates vs. Yankees Prediction and Odds for Wednesday, September 21 (Trust Starters in New York)

New York Yankees starting pitcher Luis Severino (40).
New York Yankees starting pitcher Luis Severino (40). / Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Yankees pulled off an unbelievable comeback on Tuesday night, rallying from four runs down in the ninth inning to beat the Pittsburgh Pirates 9-8. 

The rally started with Aaron Judge’s 60th home run of the season, but it ended even better, as Giancarlo Stanton mashed a walk-off grand slam, sending the New York crowd into a frenzy. 

Could that win be a springboard for a New York team that seems to have figured things out on offense now that it is healthy? The return of Stanton, Anthony Rizzo and now Harrison Bader, who had two big hits in his Yankee debut, has certainly reinvigorated New York’s lineup. 

The Yankees welcome back another key piece on Wednesday, as Luis Severino (5-3, 3.45 ERA) is fresh off of the injured list and scheduled to start for the first time since July 13.

Sevy takes on former Yankees prospect Roansy Contreras (5-4, 3.24 ERA) in this matchup. 

Here are the latest odds from FanDuel: 


Pirates vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line and Total

Pirates vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

I backed the Yankees on the run line last night in this game, but it came up short due to a late game implosion. 

I have no interest in taking a side here with the Yankees’ run line juiced heavily, but there could be some value on the total, specifically in the first five innings. 

Severino looked great in his rehab starts, and when healthy, he’s been one of New York’s better pitchers this season. That being said, I’m not sure how long the Yankees let him go in his first Major League start in over two months. 

We have a similar situation with Contreras, who threw just 55 pitches in his last outing and has only pitched past the sixth inning once since being recalled in August. 

However, Contreras has pitched well over that stretch, compiling a 2.43 ERA, and he’s allowed one or fewer runs in four straight starts. With the full game total sitting at eight runs, I think there is value in taking an UNDER in the first five innings before the Pirates’ league worst bullpen takes over this game.

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.