Following a 104-113 loss to the Timberwolves, the 45-24 Miami Heat hope to get back in the win column as they host the 18-50 Detroit Pistons tonight at 7:30 PM EST.
Despite losing three straight, Detroit is on an absolute heater. They're 9-0-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last 11 games and actually won a respectable six of those! The time is yours, Detroit!
Well, maybe. Miami has been excellent since they've gotten healthy, winning 13 of 17 and going 11-5-1 ATS in that stretch. The Heat have two wins in three games against the Pistons this year but Detroit covered the spread in all three.
Will Cade Cunningham and the Motor City crew keep another contest against Miami close or will the Heat's suffocating defense overwhelm the young guns?
Let's take a look at the odds via WynnBET to find out:
Pistons vs Heat Odds, Spread and Total
- Pistons +12.5 (-110)
- Heat -12.5 (-110)
- Pistons: +650
- Heat: -1000
- 215 (Over -110/Under -110-)
Pistons vs Heat Prediction and Pick
Cade Cunningham didn't have much success last March during his time at Oklahoma State but woo boy, is he ever making up for it this year! Since the calendar flipped to this glorious basketball heaven of a month, the No. 1 overall pick is averaging 23.1 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 6.4 assists per game on 45% shooting. The shooting efficiency numbers could improve but that's extremely encouraging play.
The Pistons, who rank 29th in net rating on the season, are up to 18th during March and are resembling a pretty solid basketball team. That's a huge win! They're middle-of-the-pack both offensively and defensively, but average is a gigantic step up from what they've been.
What happens when a horrible team that's been catching double-digits on the spread all season suddenly takes a leap to become an average team? Value baby, that's what.
Oddsmakers haven't adjusted to the Pistons improvements - Cunningham is settling into the NBA, Jerami Grant is healthy, Saddiq Bey and Isaiah Stewart are playing well, etc. As a result, this line is way too big. The Heat are a brutal opponent and potential Finals contender, sure, but 12.5 points? Blasphemy.
Miami is just 4-7 ATS in their last 11 as a home favorite and 1-4 ATS in their last five as a double-digit favorite. Detroit is suddenly the best spread bet in sports and I think they give the Heat some trouble. Cunningham is doing his best to make March a bit mad, indeed.
Pick: Pistons +12.5 (-110)
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.