Pittsburgh Steelers 2021-2022 Season Preview, Odds and Win Totals

The 2020 Pittsburgh Steelers’ season was an act in two parts:

Act I: Triumph.

Act II: Tragedy. 

The Steelers’ were the last of the undefeated teams last year, marching to an 11-0 start before losing four of their final five regular season games; culminating it all with a home loss to the Cleveland Browns in the Wild Card round. 

Ben Roethlisberger initially appeared to have reinvented himself in the first nine games of the season, throwing for 22 touchdowns to just four interceptions; three of which came in one game against Tennessee in Week 6. Down the stretch, he had a turnover in every game but one as he owned a pedestrian 11:6 TD/INT ratio over his final five games.

Between Roethlisberger’s deterioration, the offense struggled in every facet, with the offensive line finishing as one of the worst units in the NFL after years among the top. Without the Steelers’ top 3 defense a season ago, this could have been a team much closer to .500 than the 12-4-0 record would lead on.

Now in Big Ben’s likely final season as the starting Steelers quarterback, Pittsburgh will have to make major adjustments with a division that appears to have every team improved.

Pittsburgh Steelers 2021 Team Outlook

Roethlisberger now enters his age 39 season in Pittsburgh, starting at age 22 in 2004 and taking the Steelers to a 13-0 regular season record in games that he started. Much has changed over those 17 seasons, but losing seasons just haven’t happened while Big Ben has been the primary starter. 

The overall numbers looked good with 33 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, but Big Ben became a different player that became easy to adjust to. He averaged under seven yards per reception, dinking and dunking his way to make up for his arm strength and deep ball percentage slowing down. This caused opposing defenses to game plan differently and dare him to throw deep, which happened less frequently. 

The good news for Roethlisberger is he still has plenty of weapons to surround him. At running back, the Steelers used a rare first round pick on a back in Alabama stud Najee Harris, who rushed for 3,843 career yards during his time in Tuscaloosa. Harris, versatile both as a runner and pass catcher, is incredibly difficult to bring down as a downhill runner and should provide immediate stability to the league’s worst run offense from last year.

The problem, however, is Harris may have to do a lot of work on his own to get space at the second level. The Steelers’ offensive line may be the worst it’s ever been, coming in at No. 31 of 32 teams in Pro Football Focus’ 2021 rankings. David DeCastro and Zach Banner remain solid players at right guard and tackle, but with Chukwuma Okorafor moving to the left side, along with competition at center between Kendrick Green and J.C Hassenauer, there’s still plenty of concern for the Steelers.

The wide receiving core all have the ability to be among the best in the league, but the floor remains low as well due to inconsistencies. JuJu Smith-Schuster led the team in receptions with 97, but only for 831 yards, averaging 8.6 yards per reception. Diontae Johnson was targeted 144 times last season, but only caught 88 passes for a catch rate of just over 60%. Chase Claypool was a monster through the first half of the season and ended up being the co-leader in touchdowns with Johnson, but only caught one of them after Week 10.

At tight end, Eric Ebron will likely split time with new second round pick Pat Freiermuth out of Penn State, with Freiermuth being the better blocker of the two.

Defensively, the Steelers are still immensely talented, but are amongst the oldest in the NFL. Up front, Cameron Heyward is now 32, and Tyson Alualu is 34, so keeping them healthy along with Stephon Tuitt will be paramount.

At linebacker, T.J. Watt led the NFL in sacks and tackles for loss. His presence always needs to be accounted for, and inside linebackers Devin Bush and Joe Schobert provide a stabilizing veteran presence in the middle. However, losing Bud Dupree to the Titans could be costly, and will leave his replacement, Alex Highsmith with lofty expectations. The Steelers also signed Melvin Ingramm III to a one-year “prove it” deal.

In the secondary, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Terrell Edmunds will handle the safety spots about as flawlessly as a tandem can do, but Joe Haden will need more help at cornerback, especially with his age and his injury history. Right now, Cameron Sutton appears to have the edge as the starting corner opposite of Haden.

Pittsburgh Steelers 2021 NFL Draft

It’s not easy to project where a player will go at No. 24 in the draft, but in the case of the Steelers, the writing was on the wall to draft Alabama RB Najee Harris for several months leading up to the pick. He’ll start right away as the Steelers look to try and return to one of the better rushing teams in the NFL after finishing last in 2020.

Pittsburgh also locked up Penn State tight end Pat Freiermuth in the second round out of Penn State. If he hits his ceiling, there have been several comps to longtime Chargers tight end Hunter Henry, who just signed a new free agent deal with the Patriots.

Rounding out the rest of the mid rounds of the draft, the Steelers grabbed Kendrick Green, a guard out of Illinois, and two Texas A&M aggies in the fourth round. Pick No. 128 went to offensive tackle Dan Moore Jr, with pick 148 going to Buddy Johnson at inside linebacker.

Pittsburgh Steelers Team Odds: Division (+155), Conference (+825), Super Bowl (+1500)

The Steelers fall into third place for the first time in a long time in their odds standings over at WynnBET Sportsbook. After Baltimore (+125) and Cleveland (+145), Pittsburgh finds themselves at +400 odds to win the AFC North in 2021. Only the Bengals come in with worse odds at +2000.

The Steelers are +3000 (30/1) to take home the Lombardi trophy, tied with the New Orleans Saints. For an AFC Championship, you can find Pittsburgh at +1500 this season at WynnBET.

Pittsburgh Steelers Regular Season Win Total: 8.5 WINS | OVER (+105), UNDER (-125)

Ben Heisler: 

Ben Roethlisberger has never had a losing season in his 17-year career in Pittsburgh. It’s almost astonishing to think about that, given the league’s rapid turnover from team-to-team. They’ve finished at .500 a few times in 2012-2013 as well as 2019, but the final season Big Ben only played in a few games.

The point of this exercise is to attempt to explain why it’s not as easy as it should be to expect the Steelers to finish with a losing record despite all the issues surrounding this team. The offensive line is a mess, the running back, while extremely talented, is still a rookie taking on an NFL-sized workload, and the quarterback’s weapons will be either as great or as awful as their quarterback allows them to be. 

Defensively, they’ll still be very good, but regression is coming. The Steelers aren’t going to take the ball away 27 times again in 2021; in fact many teams who lead the turnover battle the previous season usually regress back to the mean the following season. 

Plus, the division is simply better. The Ravens added more pass catching talent around Lamar Jackson. The Browns get Odell Beckham Jr. back and have revamped their defensive issues. Even the Bengals are projected around 6-7 wins this season! 

The season could go south for the Steelers in a hurry, but I’m not buying Pittsburgh to go into full tank mode to get a replacement for Big Ben, at least not this year. For the first time in Roethlisberger’s career, his team will have a losing record with only 8 wins as the NFL season switches to 17 games.

PREDICTION: UNDER (-125)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 8

Donnavan Smoot:

It seems like the Pittsburgh Steelers never fall off. They are always in the mix and on the cusp of making the playoffs. This season should follow that exact pattern. The Steelers won’t fall off, but they are bound to see regression after winning 12 games last season. 

Big Ben isn’t getting any younger. He may be able to fool some cameramen with his pump fake, but he can’t fool me. In a season where he played at least a quarter of the season, he had the least amount of passing yards in a decade. He had the second most attempts in his career, but didn’t break the 4,000 yard mark. 

Pittsburgh brought in Najee Harris to help his aging process, but the question marks on the offensive line might negate all of that. The Steelers have a rebuilding offensive line and that doesn’t spell good news for a rookie running back and aging quarterback. 

The Steelers were able to hang their hat on their defense last year, with was 3rd in the league ini points and yards allowed. Pittsburgh has one of the best defensive lines in the league, T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick in the defensive backfield to run the secondary. 

Despite their elite defense, the Steelers won’t be able to translate that to many wins. They won’t fall off a cliff, but they will be fighting to get into the playoffs rather than fighting for the bye week in the playoffs. This is still a Mike Tomlin-coached team, so they will be competent at the end of the day. 

PREDICTION: OVER 8.5 WINS (+105)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 9 WINS (+500)

Peter Dewey: 

The Steelers will face the toughest strength of schedule in the 2021 season, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them regress after a strong 2020 campaign. 

While the Steelers did finish last season 12-4, they lost four of their final five regular season games and were upset in the playoffs by the Cleveland Browns. Now Pittsburgh has to compete in a tough AFC North with Ben Roethlisberger a year older and multiple offensive linemen from last season (Maurkice Pouncey, David DeCastro and Alejandro Villaneuva) no longer with the team.

Ben Roethlisberger is a year older, and while the Steelers have a solid receiving core, their new offensive line is going to have to prove it can block for Ben and create running lanes for rookie Najee Harris after the team finished dead last in rushing yards in 2020. 

The Browns and Ravens are better teams in my opinion, and I expect Pittsburgh to fall to third in the division in 2021.

PREDICTION: UNDER 8.5 WINS (-125)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 8 WINS (+400)

Iain MacMillan:

One of my proudest moments as a sports bettor last season was when I took the Washington Football Team’s moneyline to hand the Pittsburgh Steelers their first loss of the season. I went on record calling them the “worst 11-0 team in NFL history” and then they went on to lose four of their last five games.

A lot of the same issues they suffered from down the stretch last year, I expect to continue this season. Ben Roethlisberger is a shell of his former self, and he only hurt the team by returning for another season.

While Najee Harris should give the Steelers run game a boost, they failed to address the core issue, which is their offensive line. In fact, their offensive line got worse by losing both Matt Feiler and Alejandro Villanueva to free agency.

While their defense will still be a top unit, they won’t be good enough to carry an offense led by Big Ben. Their defense was also only average in stopping the run last season (12th in opponent yards per carry), which isn’t good news considering they’re in a division with Lamar Jackson and Nick Chubb.

The Steelers will regress this season, and don’t expect them to be the final undefeated team like they were in 2020.

PREDICTION: UNDER 8.5 WINS (-125)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 8 WINS (+400)

Will the Pittsburgh Steelers Make the Playoffs? | MISS THE PLAYOFFS (-220), MAKE THE PLAYOFFS (+160)

Ben Heisler: 

I just don’t think the Steelers have enough in this division to make a playoff push, especially if I’m projecting them to finish right below .500.

Ben Roethlisberger has proven experts wrong many times before, but I only see one team coming out of the AFC North with a playoff bid this year as the division beats each other up as the tradition holds. An aging quarterback with one of the worst offensive lines in the game is a recipe for disaster, so to even predict they’ll be in the race by a few games feels like over-the-top respect for a team that doesn’t even know what it’s like to lose since 2004.

PREDICTION: NO (-220)

Donnavan Smoot:

The Steelers are going to be an interesting team to watch come playoff time. They will be in the hunt for the final wild card spot with teams like Miami, New England and the Patriots. If I were just looking at the amount of experience Roethlisberger and Tomlin have combined, I would say they were an unquestionable lock to make the playoffs. Yet, the Steelers looked shaky at times last year, even when they were 10-0. 

The AFC North is loaded this year and I see the Steelers falling closer to the bottom than the top. The Ravens and Browns are going to be in the playoffs, which leaves one spot for the Steelers and about three other teams. When it comes down to it, I don’t have faith that Roethlisberger can make it through the year at a high level and they will miss the playoffs because of that. 

PREDICTION: NO (-220)

Peter Dewey: 

Mike Tomlin’s teams always figure out how to win games, but the Steelers aren’t going to win enough to make the postseason in 2021. 

Pittsburgh has completely re-done its secondary with Mike Hilton and Steven Nelson no longer with the team, and the lack of continuity on the offensive line has me less than enthusiastic about the offense’s outlook as well. 

The Steelers surprised a lot of people last season, but they face a really tough stretch to end the 2021 season, and I don’t think they’ll be able to outpace some of the AFC’s contenders this year. 

PREDICTION: NO (-220)

Iain MacMillan:

As I stated in my preview for the Cleveland Browns, I think only one team from the AFC North is going to make the postseason this year and it’s not going to be the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Steelers are a quarterback and an offensive line away from being one of the best teams in the NFL, but as we all know, quarterbacks are pivotal when it comes to a team’s success. Big Ben has had a fantastic career, but it was time for him to hang up the cleats this past offseason as he ruined the Steelers chances of a deep playoff run late in the season last year.

As long as Roethlisberger is still under center, the Steelers will underperform.

PREDICTION: NO (-220)

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Every day from the start of NFL Training Camp, the BetSided team of Ben Heisler, Donnavan Smoot, Peter Dewey and Iain MacMillan are breaking down the win totals, playoff and Super Bowl odds for every team in the NFL.

Check back Monday, August 30th at 1 p.m. EDT when we preview the betting outlook for the Cincinnati Bengals and don’t forget to view our earlier team-by-team betting previews.

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