Portland vs Santa Clara Prediction and Odds (Pilots Will Steer Steady Offense To Cover)

The 20-10 Santa Clara Broncos exploded for 61 second-half points in a 103-89 victory over Portland last week and hope they cracked the code as they take on the 18-13 Pilots in the West Coast Conference Tournament tonight at 9:30 PM PST.

Santa Clara is 9-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last 11 thanks to the 19th-best effective field goal percentage in the country, but Portland is no slouch, going 14-4 ATS in their last 18.

Can the Broncos advance with a second-straight win over the Pilots, or will Portland prove a scrappy underdog and keep it close?

Here are the odds via WynnBET:

Portland vs Santa Clara Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Portland +9 (-110)
• Santa Clara -9 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Portland: +325
• Santa Clara: -425

Total:

• 151 (Over -110/Under -110)

Portland vs Santa Clara Prediction and Pick

Portland hung tough with the Broncos for most of the game before a late second-half three-point explosion propelled Santa Clara to victory. 61 points in a half is absolutely bonkers. Over three points a minute? Are you kidding me?

The Broncos have the 10th-best three-point shooting percentage in the country so it isn't all that surprising. But still, going 14/25 from beyond the arc when your season average is 38% is unlikely to be repeated.

Portland is 12-4 ATS as an underdog and I like their chances to keep that trend going. They're in the 98th percentile nationally in offensive rating over their last five, while Santa Clara is in the 4th percentile in defensive rating over that same time span. The Pilots very well could have won that game. Sometimes the other team just makes a zillion three's in your face and that's that.

But that hasn't been the Broncos' game this year. They're in the 13th percentile in three-point attempt rate, so they're much more comfortable working the ball inside. Perhaps they'll just never miss a three again and completely transform their team on the fly, but I'd bet that won't be the case.

It's telling that the line closed as a 10.5-point spread in favor of Santa Clara in the first matchup. Even after a win, the line is down to 9? The sportsbooks are telling us something - I'm inclined to trust them.

Pick: Portland +9 (-110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.