Predators vs. Avalanche Prediction and Odds for Game 2 (Fade the Over Trend)
The Nashville Predators entered the NHL Playoffs as the biggest underdogs to win their opening round series, and they looked every bit of a long shot in Game 1 when they lost by a final score of 7-2 to the Avalanche.
The Preds already had their back up against the wall when their star goaltender, Juuse Saros, got hurt late in the season, but they made matters worse by allowing 45 shots on goal in the opening game. Colorado had its way with Nashville, but will we see a repeat performance in Game 2?
Here are the odds for tonight's game, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.
Predators vs. Avalanche Odds and Total
Moneyline:
- Predators +320
- Avalanche -400
Puck line:
- Predators +1.5 (+127)
- Avalanche -1.5 (-155)
Total:
- 6.5 (Over -125/Under +105)
Predators vs. Avalanche Betting Trends
- The OVER is 6-0 in the Predators' last six games.
- Predators are 1-5 in their last six games.
- The OVER is 15-2 in the Predators' last 17 road games.
- Avalanche are 2-6 in their last eight games.
- The OVER is 4-1 in the Avalanche's last five home games.
Predators vs. Avalanche Prediction and Pick
I'll be honest, there's not many spots I want to bet on in this game. It's impossible to justify a bet on the Predators without Juuse Saros in net, but laying -155 juice on an Avalanche puck line doesn't seem intriguing either.
Instead, I'm going to take the UNDER 6.5 at +105 odds.
Despite the final score, the advanced analytics show that it shouldn't have been such a high-scoring affair. The Avalanche had an expected goals of 3.65, and the Predators has an expected goals of 2.06. Of course, it rarely works out where actual goals equals expected goals, but that goes to show that we may be getting some value on the UNDER.
Not only that, but with the OVER hitting at such a high-rate for both teams in recent weeks, I think the line on the total is now an overreaction to that trend. I would rarely ever want to lay -125 juice on an over that's set at 6.5 in a hockey game, so I like the under at plus-money quite a bit.
Pick: UNDER 6.5 (+105)
You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.