Princeton vs. VCU Prediction and Odds for NIT Opening Round (Tigers To Keep It Close)

That single day we had without college basketball yesterday sucked. Let's not do that again for a while, please.

Luckily, we've got the opening round of the NIT kicking off tonight as the No. 3-seeded VCU Rams take on the No. 6-seeded Princeton Tigers.

The Tigers narrowly lost to Yale in the Ivy League Championship to miss the NCAA Tournament but have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five, while the Rams lost to eventual Atlantic 10-champion Richmond but closed the season strong.

Which team will use the motivation of being snubbed from March Madness to wreck havoc on the other?

Let's take a look at the odds from WynnBET to help us find value in this NIT First Round matchup:

Princeton vs. VCU Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

• Princeton: +6.5 (-110)
• VCU: -6.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Princeton: +230
• VCU: -290

Total:

• 141.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Princeton vs. VCU Prediction and Pick

This is a clash of styles, as Princeton ranks in the 97th percentile nationally in offensive rating, but struggles on defense. On the other side, VCU struggles on offense, but is in the 99th percentile in defensive rating. The Tigers are elite at preventing turnovers while the Rams are elite at causing them. Whose strength is stronger?

If we look at recent form, I do think this spread is a bit too large. The Rams cause absolute havoc defensively, but they've been terrible on the other end. Over their last five games, VCU is in the 1st percentile in turnover percentage. So for all the benefits they generate by causing turnovers, they give them right back on offense.

With Princeton's ability to both protect the ball and drain three-pointers (100th-percentile ranking in both), they're a difficult matchup. The Tigers are in the 58th percentile in defensive rating on the season, which isn't great, but should fare well against a Rams offense that's in the 14th percentile in offensive rating.

The Tigers should have a huge edge at the free throw line as well. They have the 10th-lowest defensive free throw rate in the country compared to VCU's 330th-lowest rate, so Princeton should be able to generate plenty of freebies at the charity stripe.

I make this game closer to a three or four point spread, so I love the value on the Tigers to keep it close. They'll win the turnover and free throw battles - that's all you can ask for in an underdog.

Pick: Princeton +6.5 (-110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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