Providence vs. Kansas Updated Prediction and Odds for NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen (Jayhawks' Depth Gives Edge)

When I was a little kid, my dad loved the Missouri Tigers. Three-year old me wanted to "be my own man" and liked the colors red and blue, so I've been a Kansas Jayhawks fan ever since. I also happen to be a founding member of the "PROVIDENCE IS GOOD" club, so I'm quite conflicted heading into this Sweet 16 matchup between the No. 1 Jayhawks and No. 4 Friars.

But I'll do my best to calm my nerves before tip on Friday, March 25th, at 7:29 PM EST.

Both teams have looked excellent in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament, with Kansas easily beating Texas Southern before surviving a late run against Creighton, and Providence holding off South Dakota State before destroying Richmond.

Can the Friars keep excelling as an underdog or will the Jayhawks earn a commanding victory? More importantly, who will win the battle for my heart?

Let's check out the odds over at WynnBET as well as each team's statistical profile to find some value in this Midwest Region Sweet 16 matchup:

Providence vs. Kansas Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

• Providence: +7.5 (-110)
• Kansas: -7.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Providence: +275
• Kansas: -350

Total: 141 (Over -110/Under -110)

Providence vs. Kansas Analysis

Providence

• Regular Season Record: 25-5
• ATS Record:17-13
• Over/Under Record: 16-14
• SoS: 46th 

• Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 111.8
• Defensive Efficiency: 98.0

• eFG%: 50.3%
• FT%: 72.6%
• 3PT%: 34.3%

• Last Year’s Tournament Result: N/A
• Odds to win National Championship: +3000

Kansas

• Regular Season Record: 25-5
• ATS Record:17-13
• Over/Under Record: 16-14
• SoS: 46th 

• Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 111.8
• Defensive Efficiency: 98.0

• eFG%: 50.3%
• FT%: 72.6%
• 3PT%: 34.3%

• Last Year’s Tournament Result: N/A
• Odds to win National Championship: +600

Providence vs. Kansas Prediction and Pick

The Friars have been an auto-bet as an underdog all year. They're 8-1 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog and won seven of those games outright. In fact, the only time they didn't cover the spread as an underdog was a five-point loss to Villanova when the spread was four - so they missed the cover by just a single point.

But Kansas is peaking at the perfect time. They've covered the spread in five of their last six as a favorite and look like one of the most complete teams in college basketball.

BetSided's Reed Wallach picked the Friars to cover in this one because of Kansas' uninspiring defense and he makes a strong case, but I'm going to take the other side (sincerest apologies to my beloved Providence).

The Jayhawks defense has actually been among the best in the country over the last month. They're in the 99th percentile in defensive rating in March and prior to the Creighton game, Kansas held five straight opponents to 65 points or fewer.

Despite their strong performances in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament, the Friars rank in just the 7th percentile in field goal percentage over their last five games. They'll need to hit outside shots to have a chance, but Kansas is one of the best teams at defending the three-point shot in the tournament.

Providence bullied South Dakota State and Richmond down low with Nate Watson, but Kansas big man David McCormack won't be pushed around. Providence won't be able to overwhelm the Jayhawks with their talent and Kansas is just a much deeper roster with Ochai Agbaji, Remy Martin, Jalen Wilson, and Christian Braun all capable of scoring 15+ points.

The Friars have put together a fantastic season and have found ways to win games they shouldn't all year, but Kansas is too deep, too talented and too in sync for the scrappy Providence bunch to beat. Give me the Jayhawks to pull away deep as they're able to exhaust a thin Friars rotation.

Pick: Kansas -7.5 (-110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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