The No. 21 Xavier Musketeers went from Villanova’s biggest threat in the Big East to having a 4-3 record in conference play. After staring 11-1, things were all hunky-dory and Xavier looked like the rival that the Big East needed. Sadly, once conference play came along, the Musketeers collapsed and now sit in 6th place in the Big East.
Meanwhile, the No. 17 Providence Friars were expected to be, at best, a mid-level team in the Big East. The Friars were having none of that and are currently leading the Big East with a 16-2 overall record and a 6-1 mark in conference action.
With the Friars playing some incredible basketball and the Musketeers struggling, why is Xavier favored in this spot by nearly double digits? Let’s figure it out. Here are the current odds for this Big East matchup, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.
Providence vs. Xavier Odds, Spread, and Total
Spread:
- Providence +8 (-110)
- Xavier -8 (-110)
Moneyline:
- Providence +285
- Xavier -370
Total: 137.5 (Over -115/Under -105)
Providence vs. Xavier Prediction and Pick
There is nothing that can take away from the amazing first half of the season that the Providence Friars have had. But when you take a closer look, their 6-1 conference record is not quite as impressive as it could be. Right off the bat, we have to look at the teams that Providence beat in those six games. Two of those games were at home against Georgetown and Butler, two of the worst teams in the Conference. Before that, they were spared games against Seton Hall, Uconn, and Creighton due to COVID cancellations or postponements. They did have impressive wins over Uconn, Seton Hall, and DePaul before the New Year, but since then have not had much of a challenge. The big test they have had thus far was against Marquette in a game that the Friars lost 88-56.
Now, while that might explain why the Friars are underdogs here, I don’t see why the spread is so vast at eight points. Despite their strength of schedule lacking the strength part, they are winners of six of seven in the Big East. Meanwhile, Xavier is struggling against the spread. having covered once against conference opponents, and are 3-3 SU in their last six games overall. I like the Friars to come out and keep this game close down to the wire. I wouldn’t be shocked to see an outright underdog win here either.
Lean: Providence +8 (-110)