Public Betting on Chiefs-Ravens OVER/UNDER is Massively One-Sided

Is the public right about Patrick Mahomes vs. Lamar Jackson?

David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

When it comes to betting on the Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship, the most highly-anticipated game of the season and sure to be one of the most bet on too, it's important to know where the public is siding.

That way, you know to avoid it.

Vegas does always win in the end, after all.

Well, when it comes to the OVER/UNDER in this game, there's a clear direction the public is leaning, and it's not a surprise when you consider the quarterbacks.

The OVER/UNDER in this game is currently set at 44.5 points at DraftKings and the public is all-in on the OVER, with 84% of the bets made on the total at DraftKings siding with the OVER.

With Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson under center for the Chiefs and Ravens respectively, there's reason to believe this will be a high-scoring affair. The Ravens scored 34 points in their win over the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round and the Chiefs are averaging 26.5 PPG in their two playoff games.

Surely the sportsbook got it wrong considering the total of those combined is 60.5 points, right? Not so fast.

The Ravens defense led the league in points per game allowed (16.1) and yards per pass (5.2). They were fourth in sack percentage (8.25), sixth in third-down conversion percetange (36.3) and second in red zone TD scoring percentage (40.8).

The last stat should interest bettors the most because the Chiefs have struggled scoring touchdowns in the red zone, clocking in at 19th in the NFL at 52.1%.

The Chiefs defense, meanwhile, is equally stout, finishing second in points per game allowed (17.1), third in total yards allowed (292.5) and fourth in yards per play allowed (4.7). They were the top team in the NFL in sack percentage (8.5) and second in opponent yards per pas (5.3).

Their biggest weakness aligns with the Ravens biggest strength. The Chiefs allowed 4.5 yards per rush this season (25th in the NFL) and the Ravens were the No. 1 rushing team in virtually every statistic. Coupled with the Ravens outstanding pass defense, that could lead to a run-heavy script.

I'm not betting the OVER/UNDER on this game, as I think the line is set at a spot where there's no great value on either side. While these are two of, if not thee, best quarterbacks in the NFL, the opposing defenses have a chance to neutralize the big plays we're accustomed to seeing them make, thus putting even this seemingly low total in a zone where I don't feel confident siding one way or another.

The public disagrees. They see something I don't. We'll see if it pays off for them. Or, perhaps, the sportsbooks win again.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.