Pump the Brakes on Daniel Jones' Big Leap with the Giants in 2022

New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones has a pivotal fourth year coming up with new coach Brian Daboll running the show.
New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones has a pivotal fourth year coming up with new coach Brian Daboll running the show. / Danielle Parhizkaran/NorthJersey.com /

I may be dating myself a little bit, but back in 2002, the Chicago Cubs hired a manager that just went to Game 7 of the World Series in Dusty Baker. During his introductory press conference, Baker said the following that may have taken a few media members and fans watching by surprise:

"My name's Dusty, not Messiah."

Now that the New York Giants have officially hired Brian Daboll to "unlock" the full potential of fourth-year quarterback Daniel Jones, the same line may need to be repeated.

Expectations for Jones are through the roof with Daboll in charge, and it's not difficult to understand why. Daboll was in Buffalo the year they drafted Josh Allen, and he's put up MVP-type seasons over the past two seasons after starting essentially from square one.

Giants chairman John Mara has even been on the record of saying that the organization has done everything possible to "screw Daniel Jones up," but even with an offensive mind ready to tailor to Jones and the team's skillset around him, it's not realistic to assume Josh Allen 2.0 is walking through the door.

Josh Allen vs. Daniel Jones Comparison

For young quarterbacks, Year 1 to Year 2, followed by Year 2 to Year 3 is when most take their biggest jump. Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson won the MVP in their second full season. Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert each had fantastic seasons in Year 2. Allen, while noticably better in his second year didn't make the jump to a viable MVP candidate until his third year.

However, the one thing all of these top-tier quarterbacks have in common is consistency. Every quarterback other than Herbert was playing for the same head coach and same offensive coordinator and play-caller.

For Jones, it's a brand new offensive system and scheme he'll have to learn. He started off in Pat Shumur's system in Year 1, then learned under Jason Garrett, and after Garrett was let go, had plays called from interim O.C. Freddie Kitchens.

There's also the health factor. Jones has yet to play a full NFL season, playing in 13, 14, and 11 games respectively in three seasons. With Allen, he's played in every game the last three seasons.

Lastly, while Jones has the ability to scramble and gain chunk plays, it hasn't been the kind of viable option that it's been for Allen in Buffalo. While Jones has more yards per carry than Allen, he's also been outscored in rushing touchdowns 31:5.

Make no mistake that Jones will be better under Daboll's tutelage compared to previous regimes; it's nearly impossible for him to be worse!

Whatever WynnBET Sportsbook sets the Giants win total at, or Jones' OVER/UNDER on passing/rushing yards should likely come with a "Brian Daboll Tax" this season (another reason to consider the under).

But if New York decides he's the answer long-term, Giants fans will see the dividends hopefully pay off in a few years, rather than right away.

Follow all of Ben Heisler's betting picks in real-time HERE!