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Purdue FW vs. Oakland Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Horizon League Quarterfinals (Trust the Offenses)

College basketball betting preview, prediction and best bet for Purdue FW-Oakland. 

By Shelby Dermer

Nov 27, 2023; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Oakland Golden Grizzlies forward Trey Townsend (4) shoots against Xavier.
Nov 27, 2023; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Oakland Golden Grizzlies forward Trey Townsend (4) shoots against Xavier. / Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports
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Purdue Fort Wayne has won five of its last six games after knocking out Robert Morris (78-63) in the Horizon League Opener on Tuesday. The Mastodons have a tough road to advance deeper into the tournament, running into top-seeded Oakland in Thursday’s quarterfinals. 

Oakland, winners of five of its last six games, is bidding for its first NCAA Tournament appearance in over a decade (2011) and is a short favorite over Purdue Fort Wayne Thursday night. Do the Grizzlies continue to roll? Here’s the betting breakdown of the quarterfinals matchup with a best bet. 

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Purdue FW vs. Oakland Odds, Spread and Total

Purdue FW vs. Oakland Betting Trends

  • Purdue FW is 17-12-1 ATS this season
  • Oakland is 19-12 ATS this season
  • Purdue FW is 6-5-1 ATS as an underdog this season
  • Oakland is 10-9 ATS as a favorite this season
  • The OVER is 17-13 in Purdue FW games this season
  • The OVER is 19-12 in Oakland games this season

Purdue FW vs. Oakland How to Watch

  • Date: Thursday, March 7
  • Game time: 7 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Athletics Center O’Rena
  • How to watch (TV): ESPN+
  • Purdue FW record: 21-11
  • Oakland record: 20-11

Purdue FW vs. Oakland Key Players to Watch

Purdue FW

Jalen Jackson: Purdue Fort Wayne has a potent offensive lineup that features four players averaging at least 13 points per game. Jackson leads the way at 16.2 per night and is shooting over 50% from the field and 41% from downtown. However, Jackson is in the midst of a shooting slump from the perimeter, going just 6-of-23 over the last six games. 

Oakland 

Trey Townsend: The 6-foot-6 junior forward powered Oakland’s surge to the top of the Horizon League standings as the Grizzlies’ leading scorer (16.6) and rebounder (7.6). Townsend finished the regular season with a pair of double-doubles over the final three games, turning in 54 points and 37 rebounds in that stretch. 

Purdue FW vs. Oakland Prediction and Pick 

You have to start with the offenses in this matchup as both are extremely efficient. Purdue Fort Wayne is top-50 in the country in effective field goal percentage and is just outside the top-50 in 3-point shooting (No. 57) and 2-point shooting (No. 56), though their main struggle is at the charity stripe.

In their previous trip to Oakland, the Mastodons shot 66.7% from the field and an absurd 17-of-26 from beyond the arc. Though it’s challenging to project that kind of shooting performance to repeat itself, Purdue Fort Wayne has still scored 79 or more points in five consecutive road games, going 4-1 in that stretch. Oakland’s offense is No. 128 in efficiency, according to KenPom, which is second best in the Horizon League. 

Both defenses struggle to get stops and are ranked lower than No. 200 in KenPom in effective field goal percentage. Overall, the two offenses set the tone and can do what they do best in this matchup. For Purdue Fort Wayne, it’s shooting triples, while Oakland is No. 217 in the nation in defending. For Oakland, it’s inside the arc, where Purdue Fort Wayne is No. 276 in the country in defending 2-point shots. Expect another high-scoring tilt between the two rivals. Go with the over. 

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.

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