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Purdue FW vs. Tarleton State Prediction, Odds and Key Players for CIT Semifinal (Take the Over)

College basketball betting preview for Purdue FW-Tarleton State.

By Shelby Dermer

Dec 20, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; IPFW Mastodons guard Jalen Jackson (1) dribbles the ball up the court.
Dec 20, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; IPFW Mastodons guard Jalen Jackson (1) dribbles the ball up the court. / Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
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A spot in the CIT Championship game is on the line Monday night in Stephenville, Texas as Purdue Fort Wayne and Tarleton State square off at Wisdom Gym. The winner will get Norfolk State in Wednesday’s title tilt. 

Purdue FW was not in line to play meaningful March basketball throughout the majority of the season, but the Mastodons pulled out a 77-75 victory over Bowling Green in their CIT opener March 20 to keep the season alive. Can they play spoiler as a road underdog? 

Tarleton State has been great as a favorite this season and have enjoyed playing in front of its home fans. The Texans cruised to a pair of double-digit victories in the CIT over Texas Southern (82-71) and Abilene Christian (86-59). Can they pull away for a spot in the CIT final? Here’s the betting breakdown of the matchup with a best bet. 

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Purdue FW vs. Tarleton State Odds, Spread and Total

(Odds via Draft Kings)

Purdue FW: +5.5 (-108)

Tarleton State: -5.5 (-112)

Over: 150.5 (-112)

Under: 150.5 (-108)

Purdue FW vs. Tarleton State Betting Trends

  • Purdue FW is 18-13-1 ATS this season
  • Tarleton State is 20-11 ATS this season
  • Purdue FW is 6-6-1 ATS as an underdog this season
  • Tarleton State is 11-6 ATS as a favorite this season
  • The OVER is 18-14 in Purdue FW games this season
  • The OVER is 19-12 in Tarleton State games this season

Purdue FW vs. Tarleton State How to Watch

  • Date: Monday, March 25 
  • Game time: 7 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Wisdom Gym
  • How to watch (TV): ESPN+
  • Purdue FW record: 22-12
  • Tarleton State record: 25-9

Purdue FW vs. Tarleton State Key Players to Watch

Purdue FW

Jalen Jackson: The sophomore guard has been efficient this season while averaging a team-high 16.2 points per game. Jackson is shooting 51.3% from the field this year and went 9-of-13 from the field for 18 points in Purdue FW’s win over Bowling Green March 20. 

Tarleton State 

Kiandre Gaddy: Speaking of efficiency, Gaddy is shooting 56.4% from the field this season and has turned in back-to-back quality performances in the CIT. In two wins, Gabby combined for 28 points on 13-of-21 shooting. He opened the event with a 12-point, 10-rebound double-double in the Texans’ victory over Texas Southern. 

Purdue FW vs. Tarleton State Prediction and Pick 

Purdue FW plays at the No. 37 adjusted tempo in the nation, according to KenPom. Can Tarleton State’s defense keep up? The Texans are No. 168 in defensive efficiency but were below average in shot defense in the WAC this season. 

Purdue FW makes the most of its extended possessions as one of the best shooting teams in the nation. The Mastodons are No. 48 in effective field goal percentage and over 42% of its shots are from beyond the arc, the No. 51 rate in the nation. Purdue FW is No. 49 in 3-point shooting and its up-tempo scheme feeds into transition opportunities and breakaway chances that have led to the No. 63 two-point shooting offense in the country. Purdue FW plays fast and most importantly stays under control. They are No. 35 in turnover percentage as an offense, which should play a key factor against a Tarleton State defense that relies heavily on takeaways (No. 21 in steal percentage) to offset the high number of second-chance opportunities it allows.

Offensively, Tarleton State has a great advantage in this matchup down low. The Texans score nearly 57% of its points from inside the arc (the 24th-highest rate in the country) and Purdue FW’s interior defense has lacked all year (No. 301 defending 2-point shots). Overall, both offenses have the edge in this matchup over defenses that have been average all year. There’s a shootout on tap in this semifinal tilt. Take the over. 

Pick: OVER 150.5

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