Purdue vs. Gonzaga Prediction and Odds for Friday, November 25 (Shooting Regression Looming for the Zags)

Another top 25 matchup in the Phil Knight Invitational.

A real late-night battle on the west coast with an 11:30 ET tip. The No. 24 Purdue Boilermakers will be another tough test for the No. 6 Gonzaga Bulldogs. Mark Few's Zags are 4-1 after their 102-78 win over Portland State last night, but it’s certainly a surprise to see a notch in the loss column this early. They have really tested themselves and this is their third game against a team currently in the top 25. Purdue has eased their way in a bit more at 4-0 and yesterday took down West Virginia. 

Here are the odds for the late-night special, Purdue and Gonzaga. 

Purdue vs. Gonzaga Odds, Spread and Total

Purdue vs. Gonzaga Prediction and Pick

Gonzaga does not have a ton of height in their seven man rotation, obviously Drew Timme is inside, but he and Anton Watson will have a very tough time dealing with all 7-foot-4 of Zach Edey. Edey is averaging 21.5 points per game and 13.3 rebounds while playing nearly 30 minutes. He had 24 and 12 against WVU yesterday. He is a unique problem for every team that plays Purdue to try and solve, but the Zags might not have to beat him, but just tire him out. The second night of a back-to-back will be a tough test for maybe the biggest player in the country. 

Around Edey, Purdue doesn’t have a ton of shooting to space the floor, they are only hitting 32% of their three-pointers compared to Gonzaga shooting 39.8%. Yesterday, the Boilermakers went 8/17 from behind the arc and shooting made all the difference in an otherwise evenly matched game with WVU. 

Edey should be able to slow down Drew Timme in the paint enough to limit the Zags leading scorer, and put the pressure on their guards to score. The Zags next three leading scorers, Julian Strawther, Rasir Bolton and Malachi Smith are shooting, 47.6%, 47.8% and 63.6% respectively from three. That is an insanely hot start to the season and those numbers will have to come back down to earth eventually. I think some shooting regression will come on the second night of a back-to-back for both and that makes the under the most valuable play. 

Pick: Under 152.5 (-110)

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change