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Purdue vs. Illinois Prediction and Odds: Back Illini as Small Home Favorite

By Reed Wallach

Illinois center Kofi Cockburn (21) is introduced before a NCAA Big Ten Conference men's basketball
Illinois center Kofi Cockburn (21) is introduced before a NCAA Big Ten Conference men's basketball / Joseph Cress/Iowa City Press-Citizen /
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Illinois puts their undefeated Big Ten record on the line against a top 10 foe on Monday afternoon when Purdue comes to Champaign.

The Boilermakers shook off a pair of shaky perfromances to dominate Nebraska at home on Friday, while the Illini held serve at home against an undermanned Michigan team.

Who has the edge in this battle of the Big Ten elite?

Here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook.

Illinois vs. Purdue Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Purdue: +1 (-110)
  • Illinois: -1 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Purdue: -105
  • Illinois: -115

Total: 148 (Over -110/Under -110)

Illinois vs. Purdue Prediction and Pick

Purdue has one of the best offenses in the country, No. 2 in KenPom's offensive efficiency mark, but it is actually the Illini who have the best O in Big Ten play with the conferences best offensive rebounding mark and top three effective field goal percentage.

Kofi Cockburn is playing at National Player of the Year levels as Illinois has jumped out to a 6-0 start against conference foes.

The team is hoping for a boost on Monday afternoon with Andre Curbello hopefully returning to the lineup after an extended absence due to injury, but the Illini must protect the ball.

The team is turning it over on more than 20% of their possessions (273rd in the country) but it may not be an issue against a Purdue defense that struggles to force TO's, 304th in the nation in that metric.

Cockburn is going to have some challenges down low with the likes of Zach Eddey and Trevion Williams, but I trust the Illini defense to slow down the Boilermakers offense. Purdue is the best three-point shooting team in the country, but Illinois has the 10th lowest three-point rate allowed in all of college basketball.

Purdue's defense is the worst unit on the floor and I believe Illinois can make their guard play pay in the pick-and-roll. Ideally the team gets Curbello back as well, who has had flashes of point guard brilliance to improve their poor turnover marks.

PICK: Illinois -1, play to -1.5

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