Betsided

Purdue vs. Illinois Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Tuesday, March 5 (Illini at Home Get Win)

By Reed Wallach

Michigan State's Tre Holloman, right, guards Illinois' Marcus Domask during the second half on
Michigan State's Tre Holloman, right, guards Illinois' Marcus Domask during the second half on / Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA
facebooktwitterreddit

Purdue wrapped up another Big Ten regular season title but will look to continue contending for the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament with a road win at Illinois.

The Fighting Illini's defense has fallen off a cliff in Big Ten play, but can the team's imposing frontcourt slow down Zach Edey and the Boilermakers elite offense? We'll break that down and more in Tuesday's marquee matchup between two teams with Final Four aspirations.

Here's the full betting preview:

New BETMGM users, sign up below and get $150 in bonus bets when you make a first wager of just $5!

Purdue vs. Illinois Odds, Spread and Total

Illinois vs. Purdue Betting Trends

  • Illinois is 5-1 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • Illinois is 17-10-1 ATS this season
  • Purdue has gone OVER in 20 of 29 games
  • Illinois has gone OVER in 21 of 29 games

Purdue vs. Illinois How to Watch

  • Date: Tuesday, March 5th
  • Game Time: 7:00 PM EST
  • Venue: State Farm Center
  • How to Watch (TV): Peacock
  • Purdue Record: 26-3
  • Illinois Record: 22-7

Purdue vs. Illinois Key Players to Watch

Purdue

Zach Edey: Edey put up his usual big numbers, scoring 10 points and grabbing 15 rebounds, but was limited to only 23 minutes with four fouls. However, the Boilermakers were able to can 47% of its 19 three-point attempts around Edey's gravity to secure a home win. Can Edey stay on the floor against the likes of Coleman Hawkins and Quincy Guerrier and a physical Illini frontcourt?

Illinois

Coleman Hawkins: Hawkins only scored 11 points in the first meeting, but he dished out six assists in the first meeting while also making two threes. Against Edey, Hawkins will have his hands full, but his ability to play outside the paint can lift what has been a quietly limited Boilermakers defense. When Edey is off the floor, Purdue is allowing teams to shoot 68% at the rim. Hawkins is the key to an Illini victory.

Purdue vs. Illinois Prediction and Pick

A late Illinois rally in the first meeting made this a tight affair, but I believe the team can put together a full 40 minutes against the Boilermakers on Tuesday night on the heels of Purdue's Big Ten title-clinching victory on Saturday.

These are the top two offenses in the Big Ten, but the Illini's ability to initiate contact and get to the free throw line is going to put Edey in foul trouble and keep him off the floor, which will open up the paint for a rim-running Illini offense to get going. Illinois is 26th in field goal percentage at the rim, according to Haslametrics. While many teams are afraid of going in on the Boilermakers (the team is 28th in average shot proximity), the unit is 245th in field goal percentage allowed at the rim.

While both offenses shoot well from the perimeter, Purdue may be due for a serious setback. The Boilermakers are owed a six percent drop in three-point percentage, per ShotQuality. The Illini have proven to be a disciplined defense, 75th in open three rate, running teams off the three-point line and into its formidable frontcourt. Can the team slow down Edey and the wings around him to score a win?

Both offenses are elite while each defense has concerns, but I believe given the context of this Tuesday night meeting, the Illini can set the tone in hopes of scoring a signature win ahead of the Big Ten Tournament.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!

Home/College Basketball Predictions and Picks