Purdue vs. Iowa Prediction and Odds (Hawkeyes a Rare Dog at Home)

For the first time all season, the Iowa Hawkeyes are an underdog in their home arena.

They play their second straight game at home tonight when they host the Purdue Boilermakers at Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City.

Both teams are coming off solid home wins after very disappointing losses on the road. The Hawkeyes beat Penn State 68-51 after putting up their worst offensive performance of the season in a 48-46 loss to Rutgers. Meanwhile, Purdue beat up Northwestern 80-60 on Sunday after losing 68-65 to Indiana a week ago.

How do the oddsmakers anticipate this Big Ten showdown? Here are the latest odds from WynnBET Sportsbook:

Purdue vs. Iowa Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

• Purdue -2 (-110)
• Iowa +2 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Purdue -135
• Iowa +115

Total:

• 153.5 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)

Purdue vs. Iowa Prediction and Pick

My colleague Iain MacMillan backed the Hawkeyes on the moneyline in this morning's episode of "Bet & Breakfast" (which you can listen to above or check out the clip below)

I absolutely get the play, but I'm anticipating this game being back-and-forth all game long, so I'll take the two points at home.

While the Big Ten gets a reputation as the "rough and tumble," defensive-minded league, this game should be FUN from an offensive perspective.

Purdue, via KenPom, is the top-rated offensive efficiency team in the country. The Hawkeyes trail them by six, coming in at No. 7 so far this year.

On the defensive side, the Boilermakers come in 66th in KenPom adjusted efficiency, and Iowa ranks 93rd.

So if the two offenses are almost damn-near even, but Purdue has the upper hand on the defensive side of the ball, why give the edge to Iowa at home?

Iowa has been a dominant home team. They're 11-1-0 straight up, 8-4-0 against the spread, and has a +/- of 3.7 via TeamRankings against the spread in Iowa City this year.

The Hawkeyes also played Purdue earlier in the year in West Lafayette without their best forward in Keegan Murray who's averaging just under 23 points per game. Getting that kind of a boost back, especially at home can't be overstated.

For what it's worth, the OVER of 153.5 is very much in play as I still think oddsmakers are leaning into the Big Ten narrative rather than how talented both squads are on the offensive side of the ball. Expect a back and forth game, with the Hawkeyes finding a way to either win or cover at home.

LEAN: Iowa +2 (-110)