Betsided

Purdue vs. Michigan Prediction and Odds for Big Ten Championship Game (How to Bet Over/Under)

By Reed Wallach

Nov 26, 2022; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Michigan Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) scrambles out
Nov 26, 2022; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Michigan Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) scrambles out / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA
facebooktwitterreddit

Michigan stunned Ohio State as nine-point road underdogs on Saturday to all but certainly clinch a College Football Playoff berth for the second consecutive season.

Now, Michigan heads to Lucas Oil Stadium in hopes of making it two straight Big Ten Championships as they are set to face Purdue, who won a chaotic Big Ten West during the final week of the season. The Wolverines are heavy favorites, but what will the game plan be after the OSU win and bigger tasks on the horizon?

Here are the odds for the Big Ten Championship Game:

Purdue vs. Michigan Odds, Spread and Total

Purdue vs. Michigan Betting Trends

  • Michigan is 7-5 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • Purdue is 5-7 ATS this season
  • This is the first time that Purdue is a double digit underdog this season
  • Purdue has gone OVER in five of six games as an underdog
  • Michigan is 1-8-1 to the UNDER as a favorite this season

Purdue vs. Michigan Prediction and Pick

Michigan was able to hit several big pass plays to push ahead of Ohio State on the road and then put it to rest with a pair of 50+ yard touchdown runs. However, Purdue should be wise to that as they are strong at limiting explosive plays. The team is 21st in terms of EPA/Play on defense and is top 40 in havoc rate, a calculation of the ability to generate tackles for loss, passes defended and turnovers.

The Wolverines caught Ohio State off guard with their ability to take the top off the defense, but lost in that is that star running back Blake Corum was a non factor with a banged up knee and the run game had less than 10 yards in the first half. Purdue's defense is built to bend but not break and should be able to keep this game low scoring.

However, I don't trust the team's pass happy offense to beat Michigan through the air. Michigan is top five in terms of EPA/Pass and will look to keep this game on the ground and bleed the clock when they have the ball. The Wolverines are 123rd in terms of plays per minute and should move the ball, but not with explosive plays.

I think the Ohio State game is taking people off the scent that Michigan has been an under team all season and I'll back the under down to the key number of 51.


Track all of Reed's bets at Betstamp HERE!


Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Home/NCAAF Picks