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Purdue vs. Michigan Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 10

How will Michigan come out of its BYE week laying a big number at home?

By Reed Wallach

Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy celebrates a touchdown against Indiana scored by running back
Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy celebrates a touchdown against Indiana scored by running back / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK
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Michigan is mired in a sign-stealing scandal, but the team will continue on its path to a third straight College Football Playoff in the meantime.

The Wolverines are fresh off a BYE week and now host Purdue as massive favorites. Michigan has been destroying opponents all year long, but has the betting market pushed too far out, or is the team simply too talented on both sides of the ball?

Here's our breakdown on how to bet the spread in this primetime Big Ten matchup.

If you're going to bet on Michigan vs. Purdue, make sure to do it at Caesars Sportsbook, which matches all new users' first bet up to $1,000! All you have to do is sign up using the link below!

Purdue vs. Michigan Odds, Spread and Total

Michigan vs. Purdue Betting Trends

  • Purdue is 2-6 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • Purdue is 1-4 ATS as an underdog this season
  • Purdue has gone UNDER in four of five games as an underdog this season
  • Michigan has covered every game in Big Ten play this season

Purdue vs. Michigan How to Watch

  • Date: Saturday, November 4th
  • Game Time: 7:30 PM EST
  • Venue: Michigan Stadium
  • How to Watch (TV): NBC
  • Purdue Record: 2-6
  • Michigan Record: 8-0

Get our picks for EVERY Top 25 matchup HERE!

Purdue vs. Michigan Key Players to Watch

Purdue

Hudson Card: Purdue is passing a top-third clip in the country this season, led by the Texas transfer Card, but the team lacks pop in the passing game, ranking 91st in EPA/Play. While wide receiver Deion Burks has talent, Card hasn't had time to create for this Boilermakers offense, completing only 59% of his passes with seven touchdowns and six interceptions.

Michigan

J.J. McCarthy: The second choice to win the Heisman Trophy has been lights out all season, completing 78% of his passes for 1,799 passing yards with 21 total touchdowns and three interceptions. He is hardly being used in the fourth quarter with the way the Wolverines are disposing of opponents, especially in Big Ten play. Michigan is averaging nearly 46 points per game in B1G play and is winning by nearly 40 points per game.

Purdue vs. Michigan Prediction and Pick

It's tough to trust Purdue to hang around in this one. The team has had strong production from its defensive line this season, top 20 in sacks, but if it's not getting home then it's getting crushed for big plays. The team is bottom 10 in explosive pass defense and 76th in yards per play allowed.

I expect Purdue, like it did against Ohio State, to struggle to get that necessary pressure. The Michigan offensive line has been impeccable this season, allowing only eight sacks on the year and averaging the most points per drive in the country (4.42). Ohio State allowed three sacks a few weeks back against Purdue but destroyed the Boilermakers' porous pass defense to the tune of 334 yards four touchdowns and a 41-7 final score.

Michigan will put up similar numbers in this one, winning through the air (second in EPA/Play) and keeping the chains moving on the ground (24th in success rate).

Meanwhile, the defense that is tops in EPA/Play will make life difficult for the pass-happy Boilermakers to stay on schedule. I expect many three-and-outs for Purdue and another comprehensive victory for the Wolverines.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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