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Purdue vs. Penn State Prediction and Odds for Big Ten Conference Tournament Quarterfinals (Back Nittany Lions)

By Joe Summers

Myles Dread and Penn State aim for a third-straight upset victory as they take on Purdue in the Big Ten Conference Tournament Quarterfinals
Myles Dread and Penn State aim for a third-straight upset victory as they take on Purdue in the Big Ten Conference Tournament Quarterfinals / Aaron J. Thornton/GettyImages
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The 14-16 #11 Penn State Nittany Lions nabbed an upset win over Ohio State yesterday to advance to the Big Ten Conference Quarterfinals against the 25-6 #3 Purdue Boilermakers tonight at 9:00 PM EST.

As I wrote here, Purdue has really struggled lately and haven't covered the spread in over a month. But I expected them to be facing Ohio State, not the Nittany Lions, so their path got a lot easier theoretically.

That being said, Penn State has been playing great basketball. They've covered in four straight and are 10-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last 13. Purdue beat them 74-67 in January, but can the Boilermakers be trusted with their recent play?

Here's a peak at the odds via WynnBET to find out:

Penn State vs Purdue Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

  • Penn State +10.5
  • Home Team

Moneyline:

  • Penn State: +425
  • Purdue: -575

Total:

  • 133.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Penn State vs Purdue Prediction and Pick

Purdue's offense is in a bad way right now. They haven't scored over 69 points in three straight, have lost two of three and are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven.

As a result, the under is 6-1 in those matchups and the Boilermakers have to get things figured out quickly or they'll be a quick out in the NCAA Tournament. Luckily for them, Penn State ranks in the 9th percentile in defensive rating in their last five contests and I think Purdue's offense breaks out of its slump.

Despite the under being a strong play in Purdue's games recently and being 7-2 in Penn State's last nine, this total feels low. It closed at 138 when these teams played in January and still went over, so 133.5 is fantastic value.

The Boilermakers' defense has been a stain on their resume all year and I think the Nittany Lions can take advantage of that. I see a close game unfolding but Purdue coming on top, and if it's close then we'll see free throws at the end help push the total over.

I can't ignore the recent form of these squads and am siding with Penn State, but I can't ignore the value on the over as well. The Boilermakers have only had one game all season close with a total this low and I think it's an overreaction. Look for both offenses to have solid games but the Nittany Lions stay within the number.

Pick: Penn State +10.5 (-110) and OVER 133.5 (-110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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