Purdue vs. UConn Prediction, Odds and Key Players for NCAA Tournament Final
By Reed Wallach
The National Championship pits the defending title winners, UConn Huskies, against the best player in the sport in Zach Edey in Purdue.
The Huskies, a game away from becoming the first team to win back-to-back titles since 2006 and 2007 Florida, are a sizable favorite to repeat against the Boilermakers on Monday night after both teams won by double digits in the Final Four on Saturday.
In a battle with two elite big men in Donovan Clingan and the soon to be two time Wooden Award winner Edey, who has the edge?
Here’s our full betting preview for Monday’s title game.
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Purdue vs. UConn Odds, Spread and Total
UConn vs. Purdue Betting Trends
- Both teams have covered in each game this NCAA Tournament
- UConn is 27-12 against the spread (ATS) this season
- UConn has covered in 23 of 34 games as a favorite this season
- Purdue hasn’t been an underdog all season
- UConn has gone UNDER in every game in the NCAA Tournament
Purdue vs. UConn How to Watch
- Date: Monday, April 8
- Game Time: 9:20 PM EST
- Venue: State Farm Stadium
- How to Watch (TV): TBS
- Purdue Record: 34-4
- UConn Record: 35-3
Purdue vs. UConn Key Players to Watch
Purdue
Zach Edey: Edey continued to dominate as the Boilermakers got past NC State in a low scoring affair, scoring 20 points and grabbing 12 rebounds despite only taking (and making) two free throws. Edey handled timely double teams from NC State as well, dishing out four assists as the Boilermakers made 10 3-point shots on 25 attempts.
UConn
Donovan Clingan: Clingan will be tasked with keeping Edey in check on Monday night. The big man has been incredible defending around the rim in the Huskies quest for two straight titles, averaging nearly four blocks per game in the five victories. Clingan is a talented offensive presence, but his work around the rim is as impactful as anyone as the Huskies rank top five in field goal percentage near the rim, per Haslametrics.
Purdue vs. UConn Prediction and Pick
The Huskies continue to smash expectations, covering in every single game dating back to the beginning of the team’s title run last season. While the toughest test stands in front of Danny Hurley’s bunch in Edey and the Boilermakers, the team has several edges that can lead to another comprehensive victory on Monday night.
The book is out on Purdue, in my opinion. Edey is a singular talent that hasn’t been seen in the sport, but the cracks are beginning to show in the Boilermakers armor.
Tennessee was able to pressure the ball and turn Purdue over and generate points in transition, but couldn’t overcome Edey’s ability to get to the free throw line and cash in on midrange opportunities to get the win.
NC State slowed down Purdue’s top three offense by pressuring the rock as well, sending timely digs in on Edey to cause loose balls but couldn’t score in the halfcourt to hold up offensively, scoring 50 points while shooting 26% from beyond the arc. However, it’s worth noting that Purdue had a 25% turnover percentage.
Enter: UConn.
The Huskies have the length in the backcourt to make Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer uncomfortable and deny initial actions while also wing defenders like Stephon Castle and Alex Karaban to throw more bodies at Edey in the post, who has to deal with another mammoth of a center in Clingan.
On the other side, Purdue’s inability to turn its opponents over continues to be a massive concern. The Boilermakers are bottom 20 in the country in turnover percentage, so if the team falls behind it won’t be able to generate extra possessions. The team relies on Edey’s ability to shut off the rim, but its not nearly as potent as UConn’s rim defense. Purdue is outside the top 60 in field goal percentage allowed at the rim, a far cry from the Huskies top five mark.
The Boilermakers drop coverage with Edey in the pick-and-roll is built around giving up the mid-range jumps shot, which UConn excels at, top 40 in the country shooting from that area. Keep an eye on Tristen Newton’s ability to initiate the pick-and-roll and finish from the foul line area, or kick out to the likes of Cam Spencer or Karaban on the perimeter.
For Purdue to win, I figure it won’t be Edey, but rather everybody else on the roster. Purdue is the second best team in the nation from beyond the arc at over 40%. If the likes of Smith, Loyer, Mason Gillis and Lance Jones are on, this game will open up for the Boilermakers.
However, Hurley’s Huskies are no slouch from distance either, shooting about 36% from beyond the arc despite a cold shooting tournament (about 28% prior to Saturday’s 40% effort against Alabama).
Ultimately, I side with the Huskies, the most complete team in the country. Edey is great, but the team can’t exploit any holes on the UConn roster to get over the hump. It's a tax, but it's UConn or nothing for me in the title game.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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