Quinnipiac vs. Marist Prediction and Odds for MAAC First Round (Red Foxes to Advance)

The first round of the MAAC Tournament kicks off today and we've got the 12-16 #11 seed Quinnipiac Bobcats taking on the 14-15 #6 Marist Red Foxes at 10:00 PM EST.

These teams split the regular season series with Quinnipiac notching a seven-point win in January and Marist getting revenge with a one-point win in February.

The Bobcats are in a tailspin, having lost six straight and only covering the spread in three of their last 10 while Marist have lost two in a row but rattled off six straight wins prior to that.

Yesterday, I identified the Red Foxes as a team with potential value in the MAAC Tournament - can they hold steady to beat the Bobcats or will Quinnipiac immediately prove me wrong?

Let's check out the odds at WynnBET to determine value in this MAAC Tournament matchup:

Quinnipiac vs Marist Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Quinnipiac +2.5 (-110)
• Marist -2.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Quinnipiac: +120
• Marist: -145

Total:

• 141 (Over -110/Under -110)

Quinnipiac vs Marist Prediction and Pick

Marist is a team capable of beating anyone in the MAAC Tournament, but it's also capable of losing to anyone. They lean on their defense, which ranks 82nd nationally in opposing effective field goal percentage, and a strong bench that averages over 24 points a game to overpower opponents. Inconsistency is their Achilles' heel though, as they lost five in a row before their six-game winning streak and have now lost two straight again.

But Quinnipiac is in the midst of their own skid, ranking in the 10th percentile in net rating over their last five and struggling both offensively and defensively. During that stretch, the Bobcats are in the 2nd percentile in shooting percentage and 4th in defensive rating, so they can't score or stop anyone else from scoring.

The Red Foxes should take advantage of a terrible Quinnipiac perimeter defense that's 331st nationally in opposing three-point shooting percentage on the year. Over their last five, Marist is shooting 37.4% from beyond the arc, good for the 91st percentile in the country, and should stay hot.

They're in the 98th percentile in free throw shooting percentage during that stretch as well, so they're scoring from all areas of the court. I expect Quinnipiac's defensive deficiencies to prove too much to overcome and love Marist to pull out the victory and advance to the second round.

Pick: Marist -2.5 (-110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.