Rafael Nadal vs. Nick Kyrgios Wimbledon Semifinals Prediction, Pick and Odds (Nadal's Injury Means Questions)

Jul 6, 2022; London, England, United Kingdom; 
Rafael Nadal (ESP) returns a shot during his quarter
Jul 6, 2022; London, England, United Kingdom; Rafael Nadal (ESP) returns a shot during his quarter / Peter van den Berg-USA TODAY Sports
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How do we follow that up?

After a thrilling quarterfinals, Rafael Nadal's pursuit of a calendar Grand Slam reaches a difficult test. Not only is he battling injuries that almost cost him against Taylor Fritz in his five set quarterfinals victory, he faces an in-form Nick Kyrgios, who has beaten the 22-time Majors champion at Wimbledon before.

Additionally, how do we handle Nadal's injury, which is reportedly a seven millimeter abdominal tear?

Can bettors trust Kyrgios' capabilities in his first semifinals of a Major? Let's first check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook:

Rafael Nadal vs. Nick Kyrgios Odds, Spread, Total

Spread:

  • Nadal: +2 (-110)
  • Kyrgios: -2 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Nadal: +125
  • Kyrgios: -155

Total: 41.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Rafael Nadal vs. Nick Kyrgios Prediction and Pick

Nadal struggled at times against Fritz in the quarters, but grinded out a victory. The Australian and French Open champ is as tough as they come and I expect him to play and give a full effort. The odds, however, say it all: Nadal is wounded and Kyrgios has an opportunity to get to his first Major title match.

Kyrgios ability to mash his serve is going to make life difficult for Nadal, but we saw the Spaniard generate a ton of break opportunities against the big severing Fritz on Wednesday. Nadal converted seven of 14 break points against Fritz and won 52% of Fritz's second serve points.

I'm not rushing to back Kyrgios as a favorite, even with a banged up Nadal, but given his injury concerns I can't bet Nadal at this price. I do think we see another war similar to the Nadal-Fritz match, so I'll play it the same way: over games.

Kyrgios is erratic and while he has looked the part of a contender this fortnight, he can get in his own head at any moment and drop a set with Nadal's ability to return. While the Australian won in straights against Cristian Garin in the quarters, he saved eight of nine break points while Garin saved three of six. Despite a convincing score line, the match was incredibly competitive.

LEAN: OVER 41.5 Games (-115)