Rafael Nadal vs. Novak Djokovic 2022 French Open Prediction and Odds (Djokovic Considerable Favorite on Clay)

Oct 11, 2020;  Paris, France; Rafael Nadal (ESP) in action during his match against Novak Djokovic
Oct 11, 2020; Paris, France; Rafael Nadal (ESP) in action during his match against Novak Djokovic / Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports

We usually see this match in the semifinals, but boy are we in for a treat in the quarters of the French Open.

World No. 1 Novak Djokovic faces 13-time winner Rafael Nadal in the quarterfinals of the 2022 French Open. After Djokovic won a thrilling four-set match against Nadal in 2021 en route to the Grand Slam title, he is a substantial favorite to knock off the greatest clay court player in tennis history once again. This is the 59th meeting between two of the best to ever do it, with Djokovic slightly ahead at 30-28.

Nadal enters Roland-Garros in shaky form and just went to 5 sets in the Round of 16, but can he find his form on Monday? Here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook:

Rafael Nadal vs. Novak Djokovic Odds, Spread, Total


  • Nadal: +5 (-115)
  • Djokovic: -5 (-105)


  • Nadal: +200
  • Djokovic: -250

Total: 37.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Rafael Nadal vs. Novak Djokovic Prediction and Pick

The line says it all. Right now, Djokovic has the edge on clay given his form leading up to the tournament while Nadal has been battling nagging injuries to his ribs and foot. The No. 1 player in the world rolled past Diego Schwartzman in the round of 16 in straight sets while Nadal spent north of 4 hours on the court against Félix Auger-Aliassime.

The ware and tear on Nadal has been building and while I want to back him in a rare spot as an underdog on clay, I can't do it. The most likely outcome is a competitive match early but Djokovic pulls away late and wins in 4 sets.

Djokovic's has been dominant in all facets of his game since losing to Carlos Alcaraz in Madrid last month, he hasn't dropped a set in his last 9 matches, while Nadal looks run down. I'll probably be looking to bet Djokovic live if the opportunity presents itself but my first look will be the over 37.5 games in a match that makes it 4 sets.

LEAN: OVER 37.5, Djokovic LIVE at -150 or below

You can find all of Reed's bets