Rangers vs. Astros Prediction and Odds for Tuesday, August 9 (Trust Perez on Road)

One man's trash is another man's treasure, right? After signing a one year, $4-million deal in the offseason with the Texas Rangers, Martin Perez is in the midst of a magical season. The Rangers are 14-3 in Perez's last 17 outings and he's got a 1.44 ERA over his last four starts, allowing just a single run in each contest.

Texas hopes Perez continues this incredible stretch in today's difficult game against Jose Urquidy and the World Series favorites, the Houston Astros.

Urquidy is on a stellar run himself, amassing a 2.25 ERA over his last nine starts as the Astros are 7-2 in that stretch.

Can Perez pull off the road upset or will Urquidy take down the feisty underdog?

To find the value in this Rangers vs Astros matchup, let's first check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook:

Rangers vs. Astros Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

• Rangers: +1.5 (-145)
• Astros: -1.5 (+120)

Moneyline:

• Rangers: +160
• Astros: -175

Total:

• 8.0 (Over +100/Under -120)

Rangers vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

This is the third time these lineups will face Martin Perez and Jose Urquidy, and each pitcher has looked great in the first two matchups.

Through 16 innings against Houston, Perez allowed just a single run and even threw a complete game shutout. Urquidy, meanwhile, allowed four runs in 12.2 innings against Texas.

I think this is an evenly-matched battle, and thus see considerable value on Perez and the Rangers. Texas is a perfect 10-0 in Perez's road outings this year as he's compiled a 2.26 ERA in that stretch. Houston is obviously dangerous, being the favorite to win the stinkin' World Series and all, but its lost three of five as a home favorite and Perez obviously has the lineup's number.

Perez lost his first two starts and literally hasn't taken a loss since. He's unbelievable. Urquidy is on nice run himself, but his underlying metrics raise some concerns.

Urquidy has a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) over 4.11 in five of his last seven starts, meaning he's been lucky throughout this stretch. Take a look at his MLB Statcast Pitching Profile and you'll understand he's not on the same level as Perez:

The Rangers are 7-5 in their last dozen games as road underdogs and rank sixth in OPS against right-handed pitchers on the road since the All-Star Break. They just seem to be comfortable in unfriendly conditions, and I trust Perez to put them in a position to win.

Take the value on Texas. This number is too high and it's a great time to fade Urquidy, as his underlying metrics don't support his recent box score success.

Pick: Rangers ML (+160)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.