Rangers vs. Astros prediction and odds for Monday, July 24 (Bank on offense)

Expect an offensive shootout tonight when the Texas Rangers take on the Houston Astros in a pivotal AL West series.
Jul 23, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA;  Texas Rangers shortstop Ezequiel Duran (20) hits an rbi double
Jul 23, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Texas Rangers shortstop Ezequiel Duran (20) hits an rbi double / Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

There's a battle going on atop the AL West between the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros.

Heading into their three game series with each other, the Rangers are holding on to a 3.0 game lead. That means if the Astros can pull off the series sweep, we'll have a tie atop the division.

Monday night's series opener will feature a pitching matchup between Jon Gray (3.31 ERA) of the Rangers and Brandon Bielak (3.46 ERA) of the Astros.

Let's dive into the odds for the game and then I'll break down my best bet.

Rangers vs. Astros odds, run line, and total

Rangers vs. Astros prediction and pick

Not a whole lot separates these two squads, and that odds indicate exactly that. So, instead of trying to predict who's going to win tonight's pivotal game, I'm going to look at the total instead and take the OVER.

If there's one thing we can rely on with these two teams, it's offense. The Rangers have been one of the best offenses all season long, and now the Astros are starting to heat up as well. Over the last 30 days, these two teams rank fourth and seventh in OPS, as well as sixth and eighth in total runs scored.

I also expect some regression to come for Rangers starter, Jon Gray, whos 3.31 ERA looks significantly better than his 4.47 FIP. Is the Rangers defense actually that good, or has he been getting some luck through the first half of the season?

It also helps the Astros have already roughed him up in his last start against them, giving up seven hits and five earned runs in 6.0 innings.

I think the move to back is to sit back and root for runs in this AL West showdown.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.