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Rangers vs. Astros Prediction and Odds for Sunday, May 22 (Expect Runs Early)

By Joe Summers

Expect a lot of safe runners in a poor pitching matchup in the Rangers vs Astros finale today
Expect a lot of safe runners in a poor pitching matchup in the Rangers vs Astros finale today / Carmen Mandato/GettyImages
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The 26-15 Houston Astros wrap up a four-game series with the 18-21 Texas Rangers today at 2:10 PM EST.

Houston has won two of the first three games of the series and will send Jose Urquidy to the mound in the finale. Urquidy has struggled despite a 3-1 record, amassing a 4.81 ERA and coming off a five-inning performance against Boston in which he surrendered 12 hits and four runs.

Taylor Hearn gets the call for Texas and he's been poor as well. He has a 5.46 ERA and gave up four runs in five innings against the Astros last month.

In a battle of two bad pitchers, which side has the edge? Should we look to the total for value instead of a side?

Let's use the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to help answer those questions ahead of this Rangers vs Astros series finale:

Rangers vs Astros Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Rangers +1.5 (-125)
  • Astros -1.5 (+105)

Moneyline:

  • Rangers: +170
  • Astros: -185

Total:

  • 8.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Rangers vs Astros Prediction and Pick

My goodness, this is a dreadful pitching matchup. Try not to shield your eyes in horror, but I'm going to show you the pitching profiles for each pitcher from Baseball Savant. Are you ready? Let's start with Jose Urquidy:

Whew, that's bad. He's elite at preventing walks but absolutely terrible at pretty much everything else. Surely, Hearn can't be worse, right? Guess again:

Oh, oh my. This has the makings of one of the worst pitching matchups we've seen all season. Even though both offenses are slumping in a bad way, they both should be able to break out. If these lineups can't find success against these pitchers, we may need to become seriously concerned.

The under has been a fantastic bet when either of these teams play, going 30-11 in Astros' games and 11-5-1 in Rangers' away contests, but I love the over in this one. Neither pitcher should last deep into the game, putting pressure on a pair of taxed bullpens.

But Houston's bullpen in particular has been sensational. Their relievers lead MLB in bullpen ERA and I worry about them shutting the Rangers bats down late in the game. As a result, I favor the over in the first five innings. WynnBET has the first five innings over 4.5 runs listed at -120, and that's where I'm going today.

Expect a lot of early runs as both starters struggle and back the first five over.

Pick: First Five Innings Over 4.5 (-120)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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