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Rangers vs. Phillies Prediction and Odds for Wednesday, May 4 (Back Philly Lineup to Get on Track)

By Reed Wallach

Apr 27, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Bryce Harper
Apr 27, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Bryce Harper / John Geliebter-USA TODAY Sports
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It's not time to hit the panic button in Philadelphia, but it's definitely been a concerning start for the 11-13 Phillies.

The Phillies have a near-elite offense, but have been plagued by a slow start from their starting rotation, but will look to see improvement from their ace Zack Wheeler on Wednesday, who has a 5.79 ERA through 4 starts but some better underlying metrics. He will face the Texas Rangers at home in hopes of getting on track.

After losing the first game of the series on Tuesday, can we count on the Phils to even it up on Wednesday? Let's first check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook:

Rangers vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Total

Run Line:

  • Rangers: +1.5 (-135)
  • Phillies: -1.5 (+112)

Moneyline:

  • Rangers: +152
  • Blue Jays: -165

Total: 8 (Over -115/Under -105)

Rangers vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

It's not all doom and gloom for Wheeler, who has a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 3.61, down more than 2 runs from his ERA. He's been on the wrong side of variance when the ball is in play, but he also has seen his walk rate balloon from below 2 last season to nearly 4. However, he should find success against a Rangers lineup that is bottom 10 in on-base percentage this season.

I'm not going to get invested in Wheeler and his slow start, even though I think he should be fine long term, and instead fade Rangers' starter Martin Perez. The left hander has been stellar this season, pitching to a 3.00 ERA with a 2.55 FIP. While the numbers have been great for the journeyman, I'm going to fade him in this matchup against a strong offensive lineup in Philly especially against left handed pitching. The team is 6th in slugging percentage against southpaws and can challenge Perez, who is due for some regression in the types of contact he allows.

Over the last 3 seasons, Perez has allowed ground ball contact on about 43%, but that number has shot up to 55% this season. I'm going to bank on more fly balls against a dominant Phils lineup and for them to tag the Rangers starter, going over their team total.

LEAN: Phillies Team Total OVER 4.5 (-105)


You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!

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