Rangers vs. Twins Prediction and Odds for Sunday, August 21 (Mediocre Pitching Matchup Gives Over Value)

The Minnesota Twins saw their four-game winning streak snapped by the Texas Rangers yesterday but can still tie the Cleveland Guardians for the AL Central lead today.

Cleveland has the misfortune of facing Cy Young-candidate Dylan Cease, while the Twins send Joe Ryan to face Kohei Arihara. Minnesota is 6-3 in Ryan's last nine starts and he's been spectacular at home, amassing a 5-2 record and 2.96 ERA.

Arihara had a disappointing 2022 debut against Oakland last week, allowing the terrible Athletics lineup to generate eight hits and three runs in 5.2 innings while walking three. He had a 4.88 ERA in Triple-A this year, so he hasn't shown much promise to slow down Minnesota.

Can he pull off an upset anyway? Or will Ryan pull off another home win?

Here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook as he analyze this Rangers vs Twins matchup:

Rangers vs Twins Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

• Rangers +1.5 (-125)
• Twins -1.5 (+105)

Moneyline:

• Rangers: +175
• Twins: -190

Total:

• 8.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Twins vs Rangers Prediction and Pick

Joe Ryan has been a great addition to the Twins' rotation this season, but he's showing reasons to be concerned. He hasn't lasted six innings in a start since July 1, and he's got an expected FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) above 4.24 in five of his last seven starts, including three clunkers over 5.60.

Ryan's slider and changeup are getting hit hard this month. Opponents are hitting over .400 against both pitches. While the Rangers are terrible against sliders, they mash changeups. Of 15 qualified Texas hitters on the year, only two have a negative run value against changeups.

Thus, there's an opportunity for Texas to generate some runs. But I'd be remiss to pretend Minnesota shouldn't score on Kohei Arihara too. If you can't stop the Athletics, you probably can't stop the Twins.

Neither bullpen is particularly strong, and each defense ranks in the bottom 10 in Outs Above Average, per MLB Statcast.

Put all these ingredients together and you've got a tasty recipe for an over. Just add Lawry's. Both clubs are good under bets of late, but sometimes the stars align for the offenses to rake a bit. This is one of those days. Take the value on the over with favorable weather conditions in store.

Pick: Over 8.5 (-115)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.