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Rangers vs. White Sox Prediction and Odds for Saturday, June 11 (Can Martin Perez Keep It Up?)

By Reed Wallach

Jun 5, 2022; Arlington, Texas, USA; Texas Rangers starting pitcher Martin Perez (54) in action
Jun 5, 2022; Arlington, Texas, USA; Texas Rangers starting pitcher Martin Perez (54) in action / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
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One of the best pitchers in baseball is one you wouldn't think of, and he takes the mound on Saturday in Chicago.

Martín Pérez has the best ERA in baseball this season, 1.56, and puts it to the test against one of the best teams in baseball at hitting left handed pitching in the Chicago White Sox.

What can we expect on Saturday afternoon? Here are the odds from consensus sportsbooks:

Rangers vs. White Sox Odds, Run Line, Total

Run Line:

  • Rangers: +1.5 (-160)
  • White Sox: -1.5 (+135)

Moneyline:

  • Rangers: +130
  • White Sox: -155

Total: 8.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Rangers vs. White Sox Prediction and Pick

Chicago is as good as they come against lefties, posting the second highest OPS in the bigs this season, and they will face the best southpaw this year in Pérez. I'm going to side with Chicago's offense getting to Pérez, who has been fantastic this season but is due for some negative regression.

Looking at his underlying metrics, Perez has a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) nearly one run higher than his ERA at 2.54, meaning he is benefitting from some help in the field. As well, he has allowed a lone home run this year in over 69 innings. It's a matter of time before some hard hit balls leave the park.

There's no team better suited to jump on a lefty than the White Sox. Despite struggling this season, this team has consistently raked against left handed pitching and will have their best starter on the mound in Lucas Giolito.

Giolito has been struggling with his control this season, walking more than 3 batters per 9 innings, but his strikeout numbers are above 11/9. He should be in line for a strong start against a Rangers team that draws walks at a bottom three rate in baseball.

It's been an underwhelming year for the South Siders but I'm going to back them as home favorites to tag Pérez for the first time this season given the favorable matchups at the plate and on the mound.

LEAN: White Sox ML -155

You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!

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