Raptors vs. Sixers Eastern Conference First Round Series Prediction and Odds (Can Toronto Upset?)

Joel Embiid and James Harden will embark on their first playoff run together when they take on the No. 5 seed Toronto Raptors in the first round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs. 

The Philadelphia 76ers earned the No. 4 seed in the East, and while some have considered this a spot where Philly can get upset, Shaquille O’Neal made a bold proclamation that the Sixers will sweep Toronto. 

Do with that information what you must. 

There’s no doubt that the Sixers have the advantage in terms of star power here, but the Raptors have the home court advantage, as Matisse Thybulle, who has not received two doses of the COVID-19 vaccine, will be ineligible to play in Toronto in this series. 

Thybulle is the Sixers’ best perimeter defender, and he likely will draw the assignment on Raptors forward OG Anunoby in this series. Toronto has a ton of wing depth and length that it can throw at the Sixers, which should make for an interesting series. 

Embiid has admitted that Toronto does a good job defending him, and the length of Scottie Barnes, Anunoby, Gary Trent Jr., Pascal Siakam and Chris Boucher should play a major role in this series. 

Remember, Embiid scored 21 points on just 6-of-20 shooting against the Raptors back on March 20. While he did score 30 against them in their last meeting, Toronto limited him to just 10-of-22 shooting from the field. 

This is going to be one of the best matchups in the East in round one, but how should we bet it? 

First, let’s look at the series odds for Raptors-Sixers via WynnBET Sportsbook:

Raptors vs. Sixers Series and Exact Outcome Odds

Series Odds

• Toronto Raptors: +150
• Philadelphia 76ers: -180

Exact Outcome Odds

• Sixers in 7: +325
• Sixers in 5: +375
• Raptors in 6: +450
• Sixers in 6: +450
• Raptors in 7: +550
• Sixers in 4: +800
• Raptors in 5: +1100
• Raptors in 4: +1750

Raptors vs. Sixers Series Prediction and Pick

The Sixers may be in trouble in the first round, no matter how dominant Embiid has been this season. 

Harden simply hasn’t been the same offensively this season, shooting just 41.0 percent from the field and 33.0 percent from beyond the arc, and he’s going to have to deal with several tough defenders in Toronto. 

Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam are being overlooked as a duo here, as both players have cases to make an All-NBA team this season, but the biggest edge for Toronto may be in the coaching department. 

First off, Nick Nurse will have his full rotation at his disposal (Doc Rivers won’t with Thybulle missing road games), and Nurse has been far superior at making in-game and in-series adjustments in his career. 

There’s a reason that Rivers has blown multiple 3-1 series leads in his career, and that the Sixers lost to the Atlanta Hawks last season despite facing backcourt lineups of Trae Young and Lou Williams that were easily attackable with Ben Simmons. 

I mean, Rivers is still advocating for DeAndre Jordan and Paul Millsap minutes over Paul Reed in the year 2022, it’s despicable. 

I simply don’t trust Rivers to make the necessary adjustments in a series that oddsmakers expect to go the distance. 

When you look at the advanced numbers between these two teams, they actually play very similar styles, as they are 27th (Toronto) and 26th (Philly) in pace this season. Philly finished the season with a slightly better net rating (2.7) than Toronto (2.4) and both teams were top-10 in the league in defensive rating. 

Toronto really came on in the second half of the season with Anunoby, Siakam and Barnes all healthy, and while the Sixers have the star power, I don’t know if I trust Embiid, who has constantly come up short in his playoff career. 

It's worth noting that the Raptors have had the Sixers number this season, going 3-1 against their Atlantic Division rival, including a home victory last week 119-114 after trailing by double digits in the first half.

Ultimately, this series is going to come down to Harden’s ability to be James Harden. If he plays at the level he’s played this season, Philly is going to struggle offensively against this Raptors team. That's going to also leave a bigger burden on second-year guard Tyrese Maxey, and it's almost unfair to ask him to be the No. 2 option on this team in this series.

However, if Harden kicks it into another gear, the Sixers are the more talented team with just him and Embiid alone. 

That being said, I find value in Toronto winning this series as the underdog, and I wouldn't be surprised if Thybulle’s absence on the road helps sway this series. 

Lean(s): Raptors (+150) | Raptors in 7 (+550)

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record in the NBA this season here.